The Three Pointer: Purdue (2-0) vs. Yale (1-1)

The Boilers and Bulldogs matchup for their second time ever when Yale makes the trip to Mackey Arena

The Purdue Boilermakers will welcome one of the Ivy League’s premier programs in Yale to Mackey Arena for a big matchup that may prove to be a solid resume building win heading into March. Yale was one of the darlings in last season’s NCAA Tourney with their first round defeat of the fourth seeded Auburn Tigers, a team many thought would challenge the UCONN Huskies in the East for the Final Four. The Boilers will be looking to gather momentum as they head into as difficult a stretch in a schedule as any other program in the country for the non-conference with Alabama and a trip to Marquette waiting.

Yale has made four of the last eight NCAA Tourneys and have escaped the first round in two of those trips. Under Head Coach James Jones, who is in his 26 years at Yale has won 397 games, the Bulldogs have averaged nearly 21 wins per season during the last eight years. The is a sign of a stable, strong program in a league that does not allow scholarships to athletes, even in today’s NIL, athlete driven environment.

The Boilers have started another season 2-0 with games against what appears to be strong contenders to win their own leagues in Texas A&M-CC and Northern Kentucky and will look to get to 3-0 for the fourth straight season (lost to Clemson in 2020 in game #2). Yale will provide another great stepping stone up in competition for the Boilers that have been able to go undefeated in the non-conference the last two seasons.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Who Steps Up at the Five?

First up is clearly to define who will take over at the five with Jacobsen being out for the season following contact that led to a broken bone in his lower leg. That’s unfortunate because the 7’4 freshman big man has started to look more comfortable and provided a shot blocking presence in the middle for a team that has struggled to keep guards and wings from dribble-driving into the lane. Who gets first crack then?

NCAA Basketball: Northern Kentucky at Purdue

Enter Will Berg. Listen, I know that name may not ring out in confidence for a lot of Boiler fans but it really should. You can’t compare Berg right now to the finished products we all saw in Edey or Trevion Williams because he is far from a finished product. Yes, he has been in the program for three seasons but don’t forget he dealt with a foot injury most of his freshman year and that limited his development. But what many don’t see is that Berg can impact the game without scoring because, this season, the center isn’t going to be needed to score at the levels we saw from those two previous bigs.

Berg may be the best above the rim rebounder Purdue has and Matt Painter said as such in his post game comments following the Northern Kentucky game. He is also very good when being used as an on-ball screener for Smith and Cox but even better when he then rolls to the rim to rebound the ball. He isn’t going to likely get you 15 points and 10 rebounds, but he went out and got 7 points, 7 rebounds, and didn’t draw a ton of silly fouls. He is going to get better the more playing time he is going to get and that starts now.

As for behind him, it’ll be up to Burgess to get into better playing shape so he isn’t gassed after three minutes of run (which isn’t a bad thing because he can be really good in those three minutes playing at that effort level) or it’ll be up to the veteran Caleb Furst. Furst may actually be Purdue’s best interior post defender while also possessing enough skill to score off quick dump down passes from the wings and guards off ball movement.

2 | Rebound, Rebound, Rebound

For the last several years, Purdue has had one of the game’s all time best rebounders just snatching everything and anything within a ten foot radius in Zach Edey. That is gone and it seems as though Purdue is struggling a bit to evolve as a team to rebound the ball. Against NKU, Purdue split rebounds 33-33 but gave up an astonishing 15 offensive rebounds. Now, many will say that is due to long jumpers being taken and those are difficult to rebound but Purdue needs to remain system to be able to get those rebounds, something that just haven’t done well so far this season.

Yale is rebounding above the national average on the offensive end and are a top 100 rebounding team so far this season. Purdue needs to limit second chance opportunities which have been a bit of a struggle so far this season.

3 | Be Fast, but Don’t Hurry

When Purdue struggled offensively against A&M-CC and NKU, they got bogged down and seemed very lethargic at times on offense. When they seemed to get the wheels greased up and looked to get into more transition, the offense came alive. That starts with Braden Smith.

Smith, as one of the elite point guards in the country, has got to be more aggressive and see himself as option A every time down the floor to score. When he is able to do that, he seemingly gets into the lane for his pull-up jumper, gets to the rim, or is able to then find an open shooter/cutter for a high quality shot. BUT, that comes with the caution that Smith can get too quick and find himself in bad situations that lead to turnovers. That’s been a bit of an issue as he is averaging 4.5 per game so far (he has averaged 2.35 his first two seasons).

Smith needs to cut down the turnovers while also increasing his own looks to score. He is averaging 11.5 points per game and 11 assists, but those numbers have really come when Purdue is working fast on the offensive end without hurrying.

And 1 | Either Limit Poulakidas or Limit Those Around Him

Purdue is going to have to choose a strategy defensively and stick with it for this game. Pulakidas is currently averaging 20.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game as a 6’5 and 200 pound guard. Head Coach Matt Painter has often said you either have to shut a player’s water off or limit how effective they make everyone else. Often times it is easier to make life difficult for everyone else and let a player like that get 20 points if it means the rest of the team combines for 30. However, I’m not sure Purdue has had the number of capable on-ball defenders in years past as they have now.

Look for Loyer to get first crack at Poulakidas and for Colvin, Harris, CJ Cox, and even Cam Heide to get looks if the Bulldogs’ leading scorer is giving them problems. For those of you surprised I said Loyer would get first crack, he has been a revelation on the defensive side of the ball this season. Seriously, watch just him on the defensive side and his positioning, effort, and intelligence has shut down numerous offensive sets this season and led to poor shot selections from opponents.

Players to Watch:

Pulakidas has taken the scoring load with their big man Danny Wolf heading to Michigan. Yale has used him similarly to how Purdue has used Loyer as an off ball shooting guard who can use his length to shoot over smaller defenders but has the ability to put the ball on the floor to get into the lane. He isn’t going to wow anyone with his athletic ability but he is a shooter and scorer, which makes him a threat as the primary option for a solid squad.

Mbeng is a big guard who will split time at the point position with Yassine Gharram. He is an explosive athlete who can jump into passing lanes and create his own shot in a multitude of ways. A good but not great shooter from outside, he can get hot and create problems as the second scorer for Yale. He is, however, susceptible to turning the ball over in bunches. Look for this to be an assignment for Harris, Cox, and Colvin all game long. This might be one of the areas Purdue looks to leverage an advantage they should have all game.

Prediction:

The scheduling this year is proving to be a masterclass by the staff at Purdue. A great step up in each game that leads to a grueling B1G schedule. Yale, picked second by most in the Ivy League this season, will provide a great test for the Boilers again. This is a team that is talented enough to beat Purdue on their home court and the Boilers should take this game with that seriousness.

Yes, Purdue will have the best 3 to 4 players on the court at any one time and Smith will likely be able to get what he wants at anytime, but Purdue has a lot to work on at this point in the season. The last two seasons, Purdue seemed to have all the answers early on in the season while others were still struggling to find identity. That’s just not the case but Purdue still has three pillars in Smith, Loyer, and TKR to fall back to. Loyer, in particular, is playing at not only a first team all B1G level but an All American level averaging 18 points, 3 assists, and shooting 70% (7-10) from behind the arc.

This may end up being a close game for most of the first half but Purdue’s ability to get into transition and play 9-10 players deep will be too much for a Yale team that really only goes 6-7. Eventually Smith and Loyer hit some big threes and TKR dominates in the interior.

Purdue: 87
Yale: 68