The Three Pointer: Purdue (20-9; 12-6) vs. Rutgers (14-15; 7-11)

The struggling Scarlett Knights feature two top-5 picks in the 2025 NBA Draft & continue to be a threat to any team they face

The Purdue Boilermakers will square off against the Rutgers Scarlett Knights in the final home game for the Boilers and Caleb Furst. They will face a team who has the ability to beat any team in the B1G on any night with two likely top-5 draft picks in the upcoming NBA Draft in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. Rutgers has struggled to just 14-15 overall this season but could conceivably still make the NCAA Tourney by winning their final two games of the regular season and making the semi-finals of the B1G Tourney. Getting to twenty wins might get them there but their 2-2 record in quad 3 games may be their ultimate undoing.

Harper and Bailey form one of the most prolific freshman scoring duos in conference history as the pair average 19.3 and 18.2 points per game, respectively. The issue is they lack the overall support from the rest of the roster as the next highest scorer is freshman center Lathan Sommerville. That kind of youth without support from upperclassmen typically results in the uneven results that have plagued Rutgers this season. Losses to Kennesaw St. and Princeton offset the wonderful showing against Alabama (L; 90-95) along with victories over UCLA and Illinois.

Purdue, following a four game losing streak that was highlighted by poor execution, a lack of communication, and a defense that was getting carved up from the inside out, seemed to make a significant jump in their victory against UCLA. Highlighted once again by Trey Kaufman-Renn’s 29 points and Braden Smith’s 23 points, 8 assists, and 4 steals, the Boilers were able to reverse their misfortune and grab an important late season Quad 1 win.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

Three Pointer + One

1 | Limit the Turnovers, Especially the Bad Ones

This has become a point of emphasis following the four game skid for the Boilermakers. During their run of victories, the Boilers were simply not turning the ball over while also turning their opponents over. The biggest factor was that Purdue wasn’t just not turning the ball over a lot, they weren’t turning it over in ways that led to easy transition points and momentum killing ways.

You are going to have to live with Braden Smith having games where he turns it over three to four times because he is the primary ball handler and playing 38-40 minutes. What you can’t have is games where he has five or more that are killers like what he had against IU, especially to star the second half. I know he is probably harder on himself than anyone else is going to be on that fact but what killed Purdue was having nine more from everyone else. That just can’t happen.

Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Purdue has too good of ball handlers overall with lots of experience to be turning the ball over 10 or more times and that number needs to remain 9 or less if Purdue wants to be successful. For example, it was a driving factor in multiple victories but none so much as against Alabama where they turned it over just three times total with no player have more than one.

2 | Limit the Impact from Players not Named Bailey & Harper

Look, those two dudes are going to get theirs. It’ll have to take an off night for them not to grab 15 points a piece and one of them may even inch closer to 30. The key is not allowing another guy to become a third option for them and hurting Purdue because they have gone way over their average.

Rutgers doesn’t have a player not named Bailey or Harper averaging 8 or more points on the roster. To counter that, they appear to have a number of options that can take that third scoring role up at any time. Their next seven players have accounted for a total of scoring 10+ points twenty four times throughout the season with Tyson Acuff accounting for 7 of those instances. He is truly a hot or cold type offensive player that can both be a primary scorer but also utterly disappear.

Purdue can afford big games from one or even both of Rutgers’ big duo but it certainly can’t afford to allow one or more of those role players to play above their averages. If they do, Purdue’s defense gets a lot weaker having to cover more ground without a rim protector.

3 | Play to Your Strengths of Efficiency & Controlled Tempo

Purdue needs to play to their strengths of efficiency against an opponent who has struggled with their defensive efficiency. Rutgers is rated as the 105th defensive team according to Kenpom and have given up 80 or more points fourteen times this season with five of those instances coming in the last six games. Rutgers defensive is trending in the wrong direction and that is a bit of an odd statement to make for a Steve Pikiell led program who has lived and died on the defensive end over the last several years.

The strength offensive of this team is having three guys who are able to score in distinctly different ways. Braden can get to his shots against pretty much anyone in the country through the use of on ball screens while TKR is one of the elite low post scorers and has flashed a better ability to put the ball on the floor at times. The key, however, is if Loyer is going to start letting shots from behind the arc rip at a higher rate.

Loyer may be the best shooter Purdue has had under Matt Painter and that is saying something considering we have seen the likes of David Teague, Ryan Cline, Dakota Mathias, and Carsen Edwards. Loyer seemed to lose some confidence of late but has seemingly crawled out of it as he has shot 22 of 35 (62.9%) in the last nine games. He needs to start uncorking more shots coming off screens and when he has some contested threes instead of waiting to be totally open. His ability to spread the floor and hit multiple threes and become a major third scoring option opens the entire floor for everyone else and is a strength this Purdue team needs to get back to having.

And 1 | Get Contributions from the Bench & Others

We all know TKR, Smith, and to a lesser extent Loyer are going to get their points. They are too talented offensively, too savvy, and the offense is structured in such a way to get them there. The key for Purdue is getting contributions from the other players that play significant minutes. If they can provide scoring help by hitting open shots, rebounding on both ends, and simply being elite in their roles, Purdue is easily a top 10 team.

To bring this into alignment with point #2 I made above, Loyer has 14 instances this year of scoring 10 or more points but the fall off after that is drastic with Cox, Colvin, Furst, Heide, Harris, and Burgess grabbing just 11 between the six of them. Purdue doesn’t need all of these guys to score in double digits and Matt Painter certainly doesn’t expect that, but it should come as no surprise that Purdue’s struggles aligned with the struggles of those players like Heide, Colvin, Burgess, Furst, and Cox.

Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

When those guys play to their roles and hit open shots, like they did against UCLA, Purdue can hang with and beat anyone in the country. They’ll need to start getting to the point of adding in 15 points a night as a group to continue where they are but the next step is when they can get to 20+ in addition to what those three provide. If they do that, they’ll make a big run in March.

Players to Know

Dylan Harper | #2 | Freshman | 6-6 215 | 19.3 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 4.0 Ast, 1.4 Stl, 34.1% 3pt (45/132)

Harper is a scoring machine and his 19.3 points per game as a freshman show that. One of the best pure scorers in the country, Harper can score at all three levels and is a pretty efficient one at that. The last time Purdue played Rutgers, Harper was not himself after being sick and only scored 8 points in 28 minutes. He is fully ready now. CJ Cox will have his hands full but can rely on Colvin, Harris, and even Smith to provide help. Rutgers is going to try and force Loyer to switch onto him as much as possible.

Ace Bailey | #4 | Freshman | 6-10 200 | 18.2 Pts, 7.3 Reb, 1.3 Ast, 1.0 Stl, 1.3 Blk, 36.3% 3pt (45/124)

As fun of a player to watch in college basketball as any in the country, Bailey is just a flat out player. A 6’10 wing who can do it all, Bailey will likely be the second pick behind Cooper Flagg from Duke. This is a tough assignment for anyone on Purdue’s roster but it’ll likely go to Furst to start and then be passed off to Heide and Colvin.

Prediction

This is a game, especially at home, Purdue needs to win and do so in convincing fashion. The four game losing streak had the effect of putting into doubt a lot of the good things that have happened this season. A lot of that had to do with the manner in which Purdue was losing, but following what seems like more accountability coming from certain players stepping up into leadership roles it is hoped those struggles have led to an improvement over the last part of the season. We are, in fact, in March now.

Harper and Bailey are players that just jump off the page from a skill and athleticism standpoint. There is no denying these are guys that will be on an NBA roster next season and likely playing a role that finds them playing some decent minutes, especially Bailey given his total skill set. That being said, Rutgers lacks a lot of the ability to take advantage where Purdue struggles. They lack a rim protector and interior post defender to give TKR trouble and don’t have the perimeter defenders that can cause problems for Smith and Loyer.

What this game likely comes down to is the production of the guys outside of TKR, Smith, and Loyer. That’ll likely continue to be the story moving forward as we inch closer to the games that REALLY matter. Can Heide, Colvin, Harris, and Cox give the scoring punch Purdue needs to ease the burden off those other three? If they can, Purdue has the ability to make it to the second weekend and from there it really is all about matchups.

TKR goes for another big night and makes the case he should be B1G Player of the Year as Smith continues to be more aggressive in finding his own shots. The others around the ‘Big 3’ go for 20 and Purdue notches an important victory ahead of their trip to Champaign.

Purdue: 84
Rutgers: 73