A rematch of the national semi-final from last season’s Final Four will bring a different but still talented NC State team
It was just eight months ago that the Purdue Boilermakers and the NC State Wolfpack were facing each other in a national semi final matchup in Arizona at the Final Four. This season, they’ll be facing each other in San Diego at the Rady Children’s Invitational. The Wolfpack enter 5-0 but brought only three of their top seven scorers back from last season, notably Indianapolis, IN native Jayden Taylor who is leading the team in scoring with 13.8 points per game.
NC State is very senior heavy with their top seven players this season all being seniors while none of their younger players average more than 13 minutes per game. They feature three transfers who have come from major programs within those top seven players but spread their scoring evenly amongst the top five. They are without nationally loved big man DJ Burns but still have decent size with two forwards who are 6’10 that will present some challenges for the Boilermaker front line.
Let’s see what Purdue needs to do to grab an important neutral court win with ‘The Three Pointer.’
1 | Minimize the Turnovers
This may be a recurring theme for Purdue this season given they have shown the ability to play games with minimal turnovers. That becomes even more important when they face off against an NC State squad that is averaging 17.4 forced turnovers per game, good for 17th nationally. The Wolfpack are a long team that can get into passing lanes and plays an aggressive style of defense that can gives opponents fits. This should come as no surprise to the Boilers after facing them last season and becoming accustomed to almost any kind of defensive strategy through their scheduling.
Purdue is currently averaging 11.7 turnovers per game but have had a bit of Jekyl and Hyde issues in that regard so far this year. Following a superb performance against Alabama that saw them commit just three turnovers, they followed that up with a 13 turnover performance on the road against Marquette and Marshall. The goal should always be for less than ten per game and with the ability of the entire roster, that should be the standard.
2 | Get TKR More Post Ups
Coach Painter often speaks about guys getting to their spots where they can be successful and TKR really needs to get more low post touches. Yes, he operates wonderfully in the PNR with Smith and is adept at catching and shooting a floater for a bucket, but he really flourishes in his low post touches. That low post area is where TKR really does his damage.
He has shown a variety of moves that frustrate opposing defenders and can really hamper what an opposing defenses can do. He does tend to favor his left shoulder but has shown the ability to go with his left hand and over his right shoulder when necessary. That ‘bag’ that he has was really apparent against Alabama where he went for 26 points, frequently from the low post area.
Where TKR really appears to have improved is his ability to catch on the perimeter and dribble into his post offense, allowing Purdue the ability to spread the floor more. This is where Purdue can force switches and get different defenders on him. But the best improvement may have come from his ability to pass out of the post to open teammates. In that same Alabama game TKR had 4 assists to go along with his 26 points, flashing that improved vision and passing ability.
TKR needs post touches and getting him 12 opportunities from the low post likely translates to another big day for him.
3 | Defend the Paint and Limit Points in the Paint
This was obviously going to be an issue following Edey’s departure and became an even bigger issue with Daniel Jacobsen going down with a broken leg. Purdue just doesn’t have any other options inside that are capable of providing the kind of paint defense that would dissuade opponents from attacking the paint. So what is Purdue to do instead?
Coach Painter has openly said he isn’t happy with the way his team is unable to keep opponents out of the paint. Wings and guards have to do a better job of fighting through screens and forcing ball handlers more horizontal to prevent those attacks towards the rim. On the other side of that, many times those screens are coming from forwards and centers and Purdue is seemingly learning some new ways to defend those without Edey in the middle.
Caleb Furst may be Purdue’s best at hard hedging opposing ball handlers and is a reason why his value has skyrocketed over the last several games. He has always been a very good defender but his offense seemingly has struggled. He becomes more important if an opposing team has a good low post scorer as Purdue wants to keep TKR away from those situations as much as possible to keep him out of foul trouble.
In some of the games this season, Purdue has given way too many easy looks inside. That will need to improve against NC State and any other opponent moving forward.
And 1 | Don’t Give NC State Fast Break Chances
This one sort of ties into limiting their own turnovers, but Purdue really can’t let NC State get out into transition and allow the Wolfpack to score via fast break. NC State is the best team in the country scoring off the fast break averaging 28.4 points per game in that regard. The second best is Kentucky at 23. Needless to say, limiting an area where 34% of their scoring is coming from would be a major boost.
Most of those fast break opportunities are due to the 17.4 turnovers they force every game but the also come from forcing teams into being uncomfortable on the offensive end and taking poor shots. Those poor shots, especially when they come early in the shot clock or out of sequence, are essentially turnovers as well.
Purdue needs to shoot to cut that in half against the Wolfpack.
Players to Watch:
Jayden Taylor | Senior | Guard | 6’4 190 | 13.8 pts,2.4 reb, 1.4 ast, 2.2 stl, 20% 3pt
The Indy native has become the focal point for the Wolfpack offense. Taylor is an adept scorer when getting to the rim but has struggled from behind the arc this season shooting just 20% so far. In fact, the Wolfpack shoot only 28.1% as a team from deep. Taylor is likely the focal point of the defensive scouting report.
Ben Middlebrooks | Senior | Forward | 6’10 225 | 11.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.4 ast 2.4 blk
Middlebrooks is one of the better shot blockers that Purdue will face all season, His lengthy 6’10 frame combined with athleticism is able to move well and block shots from a multitude of angles. He has only started one game so far this year so look for NC State to bring him off the bench again.
Prediction:
This is a tough one because Purdue can’t rely on having a major mismatch that they can ride to victories in these kinds of tourneys. That being said, they still have the capabilities to go out and blow a team like this out of the way with their shooting, skill, and defensive prowess. Will that translate though? I’m not sure.
Both programs are without their dynamic big men from last season but that hasn’t translated to struggling this season for either program. Purdue has had a much more difficult road in their non-conference at this point while this is will be NC State’s most challenging game to date.
I’ll give Purdue the nod because, at the core, Purdue has better players at each position and that typically translates well for a Matt Painter coached team.
Purdue: 85
NC State: 78