The Three Pointer: Purdue (7-1) vs. Penn State (7-1)

NCAA Basketball: Hall of Fame Series-Baltimore-Virginia Tech at Penn State — Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

Penn State has started off strong in Mike Rhoades’ second season but lack a true big game…until now.

The Purdue Boilermakers will get their opportunity to defend their back-to-back B1G Titles tonight against the Penn State Nittany Lions and their second year head coach, Mike Rhoades. Both programs have started the season 7-1 but their schedules looks vastly different with Purdue playing an average Kenpom opponent of 99 while Penn State’s is at 219. To place this in a different perspective, Purdue’s lowest rated opponent of Northern Kentucky is rated 214th. That would place 5th on Penn State’s schedule, just behind 213th placed Fordham.

That isn’t to say Penn State isn’t without talent as they have loaded up on talent the last two to three years from the portal with only their true freshman from the 2024 class having spent all of their time as Nittany Lions. Ace Baldwin is as dynamic of a scorer in the conference and 6’10 big man provides some length inside for a roster lacking a true center. Penn State enters the game averaging 91.2 points per game (3rd nationally) and allowing 67.5 (98th).

The Boilers will again rely heavily on their big three of Smith, Kaufman-Renn, and Loyer to do the heavy lifting but the play of wings Myles Colvin and Cam Heide since being inserted into the starting lineup can’t be overlooked. Both players have seemingly adjusted well to their increased minutes with making the roster better in their deficiencies rebounding and defense. The sophomores have responded by averaging a combined 14.7points, 8.4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, and 1 steal per game. The biggest key, however, has been their ability to defend at a high level at multiple positions and using their larger frame to limit drives into the lane.

With the game being later tonight, let’s jump right into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Limit those Turnovers

This may eventually just be a permanent fixture at the top of the keys throughout the season. In fact, in the last three seasons (those featuring Smith and Loyer in the back court), the Boilers are an astounding 38-3 when they turn the ball over ten times or less. That’s an astounding stat and gives reason why Coach Painter has harped on that so heavily this season.

This is even more important against a team that is turning over their opponent at a high level with PSU forcing 17 turnovers per game and rank 17th in the country in turnover margin at +5.2. On the road and against any team in the B1G, Purdue can ill afford to give away possessions when their offense relies on a slower tempo and being incredibly efficient. It makes it even more important when Purdue is -1 in their turnover margin and ranked 255th.

That magic number will continue to be at 10 but Purdue has the capability to be under that. See the Alabama game and that should become more of the standard than the outlier.

2 | Limit Yanic Konan Niederhauser on the Inside on Both Ends

Niederhauser is a big seven footer who transferred in from Northern Illinois and has shown a really high level to defend the paint well (15 blocks) and score inside as well (69.4% 2pt shooting). He is averaging 14.3 points and 6.5 rebounds and for a Purdue team that really doesn’t have a true interior post presence seeing major time, limiting him will be a challenge.

NCAA Basketball: IUPU - Ft. Wayne at Penn State

Purdue should look to Kaufman-Renn in the post to force Niederhauser to defend him in one on one situations and get him into early foul trouble or double teams where TKR can find open shooters. After that, Penn State’s depth on the interior gets very shaky with 6’8 F/C Kachi Nzeh. Another key may be forcing Niederhauser to play extended minutes as he averages only 21 minutes per game and may be unable to get up and down the floor against TKR and Furst for too long.

3 | Crash the Boards

Over the last several games, Purdue has shown a much better ability to rebound the ball than they had early in the season. That is likely due to simply getting Purdue’s best rebounders on the floor at the same time in Smith, TKR, Heide, and Colvin. Since that move, Purdue is +22 overall rebounding for an average of +7.3 per game. In the games prior to going to that ‘small’ lineup, Purdue was just +9 overall and were outrebounded in two of those games and split a third.

Purdue continues to have one of the most efficient scoring offenses in the country according to almost every metric available but they can’t allow opponents to get extra possessions on the offensive glass. Purdue is obviously trying to figure things out still with Edey being gone and the gravity he brought inside the paint, but Purdue needs to be at 10 offensive rebounds. When they can get extra shot attempts along with limiting their opponents, that is when the highly efficient offense puts the pressure on opponents to keep up.

And 1 | Get Colvin and Heide in Positions to Score

The trip of Smith, TKR, and Loyer are going to get their opportunities to shoot in that order for good reason. Smith is quite possibly the best guard in the country coming off an on ball screen, while TKR is one of the best combo low-high post scorers, and Loyer is one of the best shooters from behind the arc. The thing is, they can’t do it alone.

Colvin’s 20 points against Ole Miss was a great peek at what kind of potential that sophomore is capable of. He is shooting 42.9% from behind the arc while being fourth on the team in rebounding (32), second in steals (7), and tied for the lead in blocks (3). When combined with Cam Heide at the four where he is shooting 55% from behind the arc, 4.4 rebounds per game, and has 3 blocks on the season.

When those two become viable scoring threats within the same games to force opposing defenses to defend them more one on one opens up the lane for TKR to operate freely and Smith to attack the paint to score at the rim more easily.

Players to Watch:

Ace Baldwin Jr. | Senior | Guard | 6’1 190 | 15.3pts, 3reb, 8.6ast, 2.6stl, 38.2% 3pt

Baldwin has continued his campaign from last season as one of the best playmaking point guards in the conference. The numbers he is currently putting up are comparable to that of Smith’s (12.8pts, 5.1reb, 9.1ast) but the guard from Happy Valley always seems to be a bit overlooked. He did have some words for Smith in a preseason interview so it will be interesting to see how a motivated Braden Smith looks like tonight.

Yanic Konan Niederhauser | Junior-NIU | 7’ 250 | 14.3pts, 6.5reb, .9ast, 1.9blk

Niederhauser, a transfer from Northern Illinois, provide Penn State with an interior presence that they would be severely lacking without. He is an athletic big that can roll off ball screens for Baldwin and get to the rim quickly, putting defenses in tough positions. If the Boilers aren’t careful, he is a guy who get 20 and 10.

Prediction:

Purdue goes on the road for their first B1G game this season and they have typically found struggles in those in recent years. Purdue has had some extended time off from their last game against Ole Miss on Friday last week and need to be cognizant to not come out flat and lethargic. Penn State’s mausoleum of a home court has a way of lulling teams to sleep and a poor effort night can become a nightmare for a team that is looking for resume building wins for the NCAA committee to look at in March.

Penn State has the talent to be an NCAA Tourney team and Purdue knows they will always get an opponent’s best shot. With the veteran presence the Boilers have and the experience, this should be a game they bring home a win. In the end, this is Penn State’s most difficult test up to this point while this would be Purdue’s fourth highest Kenpom rated opponent with Alabama, Marquette, and Ole Miss all being rated higher.

Purdue plays those tough early games specifically for this reason and going on the road to Creighton and Marquette should pay dividends. Smith, TKR, and Loyer combine for 50 points with the bench chipping in 15 of their own to grab an important early win in the chase for the Three Pete.

Purdue: 75
Penn State: 70