The Three Pointer: Purdue (8-2) vs. Texas A&M (8-2)

NCAA Basketball: Ohio State at Texas A&M — Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

In a matchup of two of college basketballs best coaches, the Boilers will meet Texas A&M in the Indy Classic

The Purdue Boilermakers will return to the court following a five day break for finals as they meet the Aggies of Texas A&M in the second installment of the Indy Classic. The Boilers have met the Aggies only twice before, going 1-1, but haven’t faced them under the direction of Buzz Williams. Offering almost a reverse image of the Boilers, Texas A&M boasts an efficient offense (46th on Kenpom) with a defense that is rated 9th in the country according to adjusted defensive efficiency on Kenpom. To compare, the Boilers are rated 8th offensively and 63rd defensively according to the same The Boilers have performed well, albeit some times offensively challenged, in these games in recent years getting wins over Arizona, Davidson, Butler, and Notre Dame over the past four seasons. Texas A&M will enter the game ranked 17th in the AP poll and 18th in the coaches while the Boilers will enter 11th in both.

Let’s get into the ‘Three Pointer!’

1 | Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers

Again, until the Boilers can really prove to not be a Jekyll and Hyde type of team in this regard, it’ll continue being point 1. Purdue doesn’t get much of a reprieve from defenses forcing lots of turnovers as Texas A&M forces an average of 14 per game but are just +1.8 in turnover differential. That means, the Aggies have a tendency to turn it over themselves averaging 12.2 per game and is a way for the Boilers to steal some easy points against a really good defensive team.

Purdue has shown a high level ability to play with minimal mistakes as evidenced by their games against Alabama (3), NC State (6), and Maryland (8). On the flipside of that, games against Penn State (22) and Marquette (13) show Purdue has the tendency to get loose with the ball. More than anything, though, it is the style of turnovers that has frequently been a point of frustration with Purdue often giving up easy points off turnovers and fast breaks. Luckily, this A&M squad is just 249th in the country at fast break points (8.8 points per game) and seem to play a more methodical style of offense ranking 231st on Kenpom for adjusted tempo (Purdue is a staggeringly low 316th).

Purdue needs to again be at 10 or fewer to really make it difficult for the Aggies to keep up with their efficient offense and to minimize the extra chances for them. They are capable of being at 8 or below, but 10 should be the standard moving forward.

2 | Make it Tough for Wade Taylor

Taylor has been the key piece for the Aggies over the last three seasons as he has averaged 17.2 points, 4 assists, 3.2 rebounds, and shot 34% from behind the arc. Needless to say, a lead guard of that caliber probably won’t be stopped but Purdue should do what it can to limit his effectiveness. Luckily, this season provides Purdue with different options to be effective against a high level guard.

Starting off, it’ll likely be Colvin’s job to defend Taylor with Harris, Cox, and Smith all likely taking turns at some point through the game. That’s a lot of bodies for a guy that Aggies rely heavily on to deal with and it’ll require a team effort to make it tough. Taylor probably isn’t a guy who can be shut down as he has 28 games in his career where he has scored 20 or more points (a career high of 41) with only 2 games in the last year scoring below 10.

Given that Purdue doesn’t have the lock down defender to shut him off, Purdue simply needs to make it difficult. Force Taylor into some bad passes and make him take 15 or more shots to get to his 16 point average.

3 | Keep the Aggies off the Free Throw Line

The Aggies average 25.6 free throws per game this season, good for 21st in the country. That would be the second top 25 team Purdue has faced in that regard this season with Alabama averaging 27 (11th) so far. They aren’t particularly great at converting those chances as they are shooting just 69.5% on the season and use those high numbers to boost an offense that isn’t particularly great at shooting from the field with just 30% from behind the arc and 48% from inside it.

The Aggies know who they are and play an aggressive style of offense that does generate opportunities at the free throw line. In fact, they have two games this season with 40 or more attempts at the free throw line with another two above 25. In the four games in which they have shot twenty or fewer, they are just 2-2 with their season low of 14 coming in a 64-61 loss to UCF.

Purdue is a team that doesn’t foul with just 15.1 fouls per game which ranks them 49th this season. If Purdue forces A&M to earn their points from the floor and doesn’t allow Taylor to really get going behind the arc, the Aggies may just not have enough offense to keep up with Purdue.

And 1 | Get the Offense Moving Quicker

In the first half against Maryland, Purdue seemed really lethargic and slow initiating their offense. That allows good defensive teams to get their feet planted and the defense set. Against great defensive teams, you are in for a long day if you can’t get things moving effectively. That’s where A&M is going to try and put Purdue into a bind.

The first order is to get Purdue into their secondary fast break, which needs to be Smith getting a ball screen early from any of the four other players on the floor and allow him to simply be Braden Smith. That type of player early in the shot clock will generate better offense than nearly every other program in the country while still then having time to get into the sets that PJ Thompson sees can be effective.

Does that mean Purdue and Braden need to be reckless and go fast? No, because that isn’t Purdue’s identity. What they need to do is not just slowly dribble to ball up the floor and not get the offense initiated until 14 seconds left on the shot clock and then rushing when the first or second action isn’t successful. Simply allowing Smith the opportunity to operate more freely early in the shot clock, especially like he did in the second half against Maryland, allowed Purdue to be really effective and even more efficient.

It doesn’t need to be every possession but the threat of an attacking Smith early in the shot clock with on ball screens to free him and others up can put a defense on its’ heels. When that happens, Purdue can kill an opponent with haymakers from their shooters and Smith dumping passes to a short rolling TKR or Furst.

Players to Watch

Wade Taylor IV | Guard | 16.1pts, 3.5reb, 4.5ast, 2.8pf

Taylor is the straw that stirs the drink for the Aggies. A high scoring guard who does a bit of everything just like Braden Smith, he is going to be the primary scorer for the Aggies. He is prone to fouls with 30 games of 4 and fouling out of three contests over his career (121 games).

NCAA Basketball: Wake Forest at Texas A&M

Henry Coleman | Forward | 10.5pts, 6.3reb

Coleman is another guy for the Aggies that kind of does everything for them with leading the team in rebounds and being their third leading scorer. Really, Texas A&M is built quite a bit like Purdue with a big three and some solid contributors around them. When you take one of those major pieces out, it bodes well for an opponent. Coleman may end up getting first crack at defending TKR in the low post and getting him into foul trouble would be big for a Boilermaker team that has had struggles rebounding the ball.

Prediction

It goes without saying that Purdue’s non conference schedule has been brutal so far. This will mark the fourth ranked opponent and there will be a fifth next week when the Boilers play Auburn. That’ll be a program record after playing four last season. Each opponent has been tough as nails offensively or defensively but A&M might be the best defensively Purdue will face all season.

Purdue can’t afford to help a team that is largely flawed offensively by turning the ball over and not playing to their own strengths. They can also not afford to play into the Aggies’ strengths by fouling and giving them free throws. They need to play their game and play up to their ability. If they do that, they’ll win.

Braden hasn’t been stellar this season in these big time point guard matchups so far this year. Yes, he was good against Mark Sears but against Marquette and Penn State he wasn’t the player Purdue needs him to be. I think Braden elevates himself to the level he needs to be at and grabs his first triple-double of his career.

Boilers: 76 Texas A&M: 71