Three Point Stance: Purdue (1-8) vs. Penn State (8-1)

The Boilers will try to evade a 9 game losing streak when CFP hopeful Penn State comes to Ross Ade for the season’s final home game

The Purdue Boilermakers will take on the Penn State Nitanny Lions for their final home game of the 2024 season as they look to avoid a 9 game losing streak and the threat of the second 1-11 season in the last twelve years. With Penn State on the verge of possible getting to the B1G Title Game along with the expanded College Football Playoffs and coming off a loss to Ohio State and a convincing win against Washington over the last two weeks, the Nitanny Lions will likely enter this game looking to clean up their mistakes heading into the final weeks of the season.

To make a long story short, this probably doesn’t bode well for the Boilers who have struggled to do really anything well on both sides of the ball all year. The offense has been an abject disaster, so much so that OC Graham Harrell was fired weeks ago, Jason Simmons took over play calling for a single week, and now Head Coach Ryan Walters is now calling the offense. Alongside that offense is a defense that appears to be forced to play a scheme that just doesn’t fit their skill level, leaving players like Kydran Jenkins to defend a running back one on one multiple times this season.

To make matters worse, the players Purdue needs to rely on to make plays simply haven’t. Hudson Card has been below average all season other than the first game against Indiana State. In fact, in games against FBS competition Card is just 77-153 (53.8%) for 840 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. That isn’t good enough at Purdue to win games no matter how easy or difficult the schedule is.

Let’s just jump into ‘The Three Point Stance’ for the final home game of the season.

1 | Control the Clock with Mockobee and Love

If Purdue wants a chance to win this game over one of the country’s best teams, they are going to need to dominate the offensive line to create running lanes for Purdue’s more than capable running backs. That would mean Purdue is able to keep Penn State’s offense off the field while limiting possessions for both team and making the game shorter. Can the Boilers do it? They have shown that they can open running lanes but without Purdue showing the ability to be functional in the passing game and hitting some explosive plays, defenses simply start to load up the box.

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The focus for the offense since Walters took over play calling duties there seems to be outside zone which benefits the visions that Mockobee has to find cutbacks. The issue is that without the passing game, linebackers and safeties are able to fill holes and gaps quicker and limit the yards the backs are able to gain.

2 | Turn the Nitanny Lions Over Multiple Times

Penn State doesn’t really beat themselves as they have only 9 total turnovers on the season while they have done a solid job of turning their opponents over with 12. The Boilers are going to need to make this a focus to ensure Penn State can’t just use their offense to run and hide while their defense is likely to dominate the Boilers offense. Allar has thrown 5 interceptions but three of those did come against USC where PSU struggled to a 33-30 win. In fact, PSU has turned the ball over in four straight games.

The Boilers will need to limit their own turnovers but have only been able to do that in two games so far this season. They have, however, turned the ball over at least two times in five of the nine game so far this season.

3 | Is There Enough Explosive Plays in the Offense?

Purdue’s offense has been putrid at explosive plays all season. A few seasons of Jeff Brohm’s offense that saw explosive plays being the prime objective, this offense has been tough to watch. Dropped passes, errant throws, fumbles, penalties, sacks, and anything else you can think of has stunted drives that saw explosive plays. There appears to be talented receivers and the combination of Mockobee and Love are good enough in the run game to control the clock. It seems it is falling mostly on the shoulders of Hudson Card and he has struggled all year to be consistent. It should be no surprise that the best the offense has looked came with Ryan Browne looked good at Illinois in the second half.

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Card’s struggle this season seems to be his inability to see open receivers down field, specifically in the middle of the field. Pressure from the defense seems to bring his eyes down and he often takes sacks or misses throws. It would probably be good to get him on the move by rolling him out of the pocket where he can use his legs to make plays.

Extra Point | Score A Defensive Touchdown

This isn’t going to be easy and when Penn State likely has the best defense Purdue has played all season, it isn’t likely Purdue’s offense is likely to score enough points to win. That leaves it up to the defense to try and turn the tide and steal some points. A few years ago, Purdue got the ‘Puke Six’ from Chris Jefferson in a near upset of Penn State in 2022 but can they get another one? Purdue has gotten one this season so far but it may take two against Penn State for the Boilers to pull the upset.

Players to Watch:

Drew Allar | QB | Junior | 149-212, 70.8%, 2006yrd, 13TD, 5INT

It has seemingly been Penn State’s undoing more often than not over the last several years of not having a quarterback who can be relied on and make enough plays to win big games. James Franklin is confident in Allar who has steadily improved over his time in Happy Valley to be a guy that can take Penn State to the B1G Title Game and into the CFP.

Nicolas Singleton | RB | Sophomore | 88 att, 543 yards, 6.2 avr, 3TD, 22rec, 218 yards, 4TD

Singleton is one of the more electric players in the B1G this season. A back who is capable of catching the ball out of the backfield or splitting out wide, it is likely Singleton will get a matchup against either Will Heldt or Kydran Jenkins at some point in time. That isn’t a matchup those guys can win very often. Singleton could be up for a big game against a struggling Purdue defense.

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Jaylen Reed | S | Senior | 57 tackles, 4 TFL, 1.5 sack, 3 INT, 1TD, 1 FF, 1 FR

Reed is an absolute monster on the field who can do it all for Penn State. He can drop into coverage, step up and make plays in the running game, or even be brought up to the line of scrimmage to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Reed leads one of the best defenses in the country.

Abdul Carter | LB | Junior | 40 tackles, 16 TFL, 8 sacks, 3PD, 2FF

Carter is one of the best linebackers in the B1G but may actually be one of the best pass rushers as well. Carter is second in the conference in sacks and first in tackles for loss and he is going to have a plethora of opportunities for both against an offensive line that has struggled to keep their quarterbacks upright.

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Prediction:

The Boilers will take on another top 10 opponent on this season in the Penn State Nitanny Lions and the Boilers will still have one more likely to end the season with Indiana. In those games against so far again Notre Dame, Oregon, and Ohio State, the total score has been 146-7. I believe that would be a textbook definition of noncompetitive and should really be cause for serious consideration of finding a new direction for the entire program. It doesn’t get any better when you take into account total yards (1,432-669) and turnovers (Purdue: 6 Opponents: 1). This one isn’t likely to be any better as Penn State leads the overall series 16-3-1 all time.

Purdue has shown the ability to be good at running the ball, specifically the outside zone with Mockobee. One of the biggest issues is that when Purdue typically gets a solid start to a drive, they’ll shoot themselves in the foot with a penalty, a dropped pass, a turnover, or taking a sack. They just aren’t built to withstand many mistakes and appear to not be disciplined enough to not continue to make them. The other issue? The defense has been an abject disaster as well.

This is probably the worst power conference team by a wide margin and they currently hold the longest losing streak of any power conference team and I believe the second longest other than Kent State in the entirety of division one football. I’m not sure that deserves any more time but it appears right now that Walters will be given a third year to figure it out.

Luckily for me, I’ll be in the press box where it is warm, dry, and I’ll get to enjoy some donuts from Mary Lou’s before kickoff. Purdue has been outscored 76-3 in the first quarter and 156-29 in the first half in total this season. It’s likely this game is decided before the end of the first quarter.

Penn State: 55
Purdue: 10