Three Point Stance: Purdue Boilermakers (1-0) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1)

The Boilers and Irish renew the battle for the Shillelagh Trophy at Ross Ade Stadium

The Purdue Boilermakers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish will add another game to a once yearly tradition before the shakeup of college football saw the rivalry fade into the background for both programs. The teams have only played twice in the last decade with the Irish victory in 2021 being the last game played. As has been the usual in the history of the series, the Irish will come into the game heavily favored.

Let’s take a peek into what the Boilers need to do to pull off another upset game in what may end up being a necessary victory to have any hope for a bowl game.

1 | Force Riley Leonard Into Mistakes

Leonard was said to be one of the better quarterbacks in the transfer portal this past season after accounting for 4,450 yards throwing with 24 touchdowns. The issue is that Leonard had a great sophomore year before last season struggling with injuries and throwing for only 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That sophomore season saw Leonard also account for 13 rushing touchdowns and 699 yards on the ground, which means Leonard might be at his best when he is able to run. Not good for a Boilermaker defense who seemingly struggle to contain quarterbacks who are mobile (see Syracuse last season).

This game will provide Walters more of a chance to see what he has in that pass rush that lost one of the nation’s best in Nic Scourton but likely got exponentially better in the back end with some high level transfers coming in the last two seasons. Can the Boilers make Leonard feel hurried and for him into mistakes? They’ll need to in order to gain extra possessions against a Notre Dame defense that has surrendered 16 and 13 points in their first two games. The Boilers likely need at least two turnovers and to stay clean in their own regard to pull the upset.

2 | Hit the Explosive Play When You Get The Chance

Against the Sycamores Purdue showed a bit of an ability to hit the explosive play, something they struggle with last season. The running game showed some burst with Mockobee and newcomer Reggie Love III while Jahmal Edrine proved the kind of big bodied receiver that can bully smaller defensive backs with quick catches and grabbing yards after the catch. The big play though needs to come from Hudson Card.

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In really his only shot down the field against Indiana State, Card overthrew Edrine who had beaten his many down the middle of the field by almost five yards. Card admitted he needed to put more air under the ball but those kinds of shots won’t come very often against a Notre Dame defense that might end up being one of the best in college football. If Card can hit one or two of those long passes over the top, it will force the safeties and cornerbacks to focus more on those deep passes which opens up the running game and the quick passing attack that Graham Harrell wants to be effective at in his spread offense.

What exactly does Purdue need to do? Five passing plays of 20 or more yards would be so helpful for the Boilers.

3 | Keep Card Clean

Purdue spend a lot of time and effort to improve one of the weakest points from their 2023 roster: Offensive Line. The verdict on this unit is still out because of the opponent Purdue played in week one but they did give up a sack against an inferior opponent when the first team offense was out there (the second I believe came with backup Ryan Browne in the game with the second or third team offensive line). Card has got to remain upright and be offered a clean pocket to be able to work the ball to the playmakers he has around him in Edrine, Leland Smith, Morissette, and his tight ends.

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Card, though, is at his best when he escapes the pocket and is able to find receivers working back to him or tucking and running. That should happen more on a planned basis rather than the senior quarterback continually running for his life (see last year’s game against IU). If the offensive line can give Card time, he has proven he has an ability to be an accurate passer that can push the ball down field. Purdue needs to give up two or less sacks and provide him with a consistent pocket for him to push the ball down field.

Another key point in this: Although the Irish defense is very stout, they have yet to really apply lots of pressure on an opposing QB. So far this season, the Irish have only 1 sack and 5 tackles for loss. Purdue can’t afford to let those numbers increase if it wants a chance.

4 | Extra Point – Pin the Irish Back in Their Own Territory

If Iowa’s ineptitude on offense the last several years has proven anything it is that punting is winning. Purdue is going to need to put points on the board in bunches because I don’t think the defense is good enough to hold a lot of opponents to 20 or under points on frequent occasions. That being said, when the Boilers have to punt they need to pin a bad offensive team (through two games) as deep as possible so the defense can afford to be more aggressive. Enter Keelan Crimmins.

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Crimmins, in his first game, had three punts but averaged an impressive 46.7 yards per punt. If he had the numbers to qualify to be placed in the NCAA stats, he would be ranked 8th in the country. That is the field flipping kind of punting Purdue needs to take another big step in the development of this program where success on special teams can mean the difference between 4-8 and 6-6.

Just as an additional note, the current leader in punting is Palmer Williams from Baylor who is averaging an absolutely absurd 57.88 yards per punt. He has punted the ball 8 times. That likely won’t stay that high for the entire season but it is hard to ignore that kind of special talent.

Players to Watch:

Riley Leonard | QB | Transfer Senior (Duke)

Riley Leonard came left Duke after a disappointing junior season that saw him injured throughout the season. He jumped into the portal and quickly became a hot commodity as the 8th rated transfer QB for a Notre Dame program that appeared ready to make another run at a National Championship. The fans at Notre Dame have been, shall I say, less than impressed. See for yourself.

Jeremiah Love & Jadarian Price | Running Backs | Sophomores

If Riley Leonard struggles again this week, look for Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman to turn to his young stable of talented running backs to get him through the game. Notre Dame is going to be carried by their defense and chewing clock might be the best alternative on the road against what will be a hostile crowd in Ross Ade Stadium. Love and Price have combined for 238 yards on just 37 carries for an average of nearly 6.5 yards per rush. If Purdue struggles to stop the rush and they have to load the box more, it places more and more strain on the defensive backs to be in single coverage schemes that leave the Boilers susceptible to big plays.

Jack Kiser | Linebacker | Senior

The former blue chip recruit from Indiana was a major priority for the Boilermakers who thought they had him locked in to head to West Lafayette. The issue was as soon as Notre Dame came calling and sent him an offer, Kiser jumped at the opportunity. Hard to blame the young man who has turned into one of the better linebackers in the country as he leads the Irish in total tackles for a team that spreads the wealth pretty well. Kiser has 14 total tackles but no stops behind the line of scrimmage and no sacks yet.

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What To Expect:

Notre Dame played on the road in week one against Texas A&M and struggled to a victory in a rowdy environment. They followed that up with an all time stinker at home to an NIU program that is a far cry from the G5 juggernaut of the early 2010’s. Notre Dame appears to be a bit overrated from where they were placed to start the season but this is still a very talented overall team. Does Marcus Freeman have the touch to push the right buttons to get the ball rolling in the right direction? We’ll have to see against a Purdue program that kind of surprised a lot of people with their performance in week one, albeit against FCS Indiana State.

Notre Dame is likely going to try to setup their pass through their stable of running backs and look for deep shots in the play action passing game with veteran quarterback Riley Leonard. The concerning aspect is that Leonard has shown to be a mobile QB and Purdue has had difficulties containing that offensive aspect. This may be a game where Notre Dame might be happy to just grind out a win and get out of town in a series where Purdue often plays above its’ own weight.

Prediction:

Sure, I want to be the homer and select the Boilers and I truly believe Purdue has a shot to win this game. The issue is that Leonard’s athletic ability is an area of concern that I think could keep the Boilers frustrated if he gets out of the pocket or the defense isn’t sound on their read keys in the read option game. Notre Dame is a 10.5 point favorite and I think heading into the season had that spread been announced, fans would have been happy to hear it. I just don’t know if Purdue has the pass rush and the linebacker play to consistently make the plays it needs to on defense.

Hate to once again be the H&R guy who picks against the Boilers but that is where I’m going to have to go. Card makes some late mistakes and throws a bad interception that allows Notre Dame to take a three point lead to a ten point victory late in the game.

Notre Dame: 27
Purdue: 17