To quote Woody Paige.
Back in the early 2000s I was a frequent viewer of ESPN’s morning programming. I was at Purdue starting in 2004 and when I had early morning classes I would wake up and immediately turn on the TV to ESPN. I wanted to see what I missed overnight because my brain was, and still is, obsessed with sports. Back then they had a show called Cold Pizza which then morphed into First Take. Back then they had Woody Paige and (unfortunately) Skip Bayless debating the sports stories of the day on a segment called First and 10. Paige would always come back to this same axiom over and over, “LOOK AT THE SCHEDULE!” As he pointed out who would win the a division or a conference. It was always the same. The schedule made all the difference in the world. Well, I think it’s time we take Paige’s advice to heart and look at the schedules of the remaining Big Ten games for the contenders for the Big Ten title. Will it tell the tale? Let’s go in order of the February 12th standings.
Michigan (11-2) – 7 remaining – 4 home – 3 away
After a big win over the Boilermakers at home last night, Michigan is riding high. They sit alone atop the Big Ten standings with just two losses thus far. However, there remaining schedule is absolutely brutal. Let’s take a look.
@ Ohio State
Michigan State
@ Nebraska
Rutgers
Illinois
Maryland
@ Michigan State
First off, there are probably six games there that Michigan could possibly lose. The only one I wouldn’t put on that list is the game at Nebraska but even that one isn’t a gimme considering that it’s on the road. However, road games at Ohio State and ending the season at Michigan State will be tough and it wouldn’t surprise me if Michigan lost both of them. Home games are always a bit easier, but Michigan isn’t exactly known as the most intimidating place to play. However, games against a Rutgers team that is finally figuring out who they are with two top tier players, a home and home with your in-state rival and Illinois and Maryland teams which can beat you on any given night? Not exactly easy.
Purdue (11-3) – 6 remaining – 3 home – 3 away
Our beloved Boilermakers took a tough loss last night to the Wolverines. This was one they desperately want to have back, especially after Michigan State lost to IU shortly thereafter. Purdue is struggling with bench production and in particular with guys like Myles Colvin and Camden Heide struggling on offense. Purdue also hasn’t been shooting the three ball consistently.
Wisconsin
@ Michigan State
@ IU
UCLA
Rutgers
@ Illinois
There isn’t an easy game left on Purdue’s schedule. The six remaining games COULD all be losses. Mackey is good to this Purdue team so the hope is that they can take down Wisconsin, UCLA, and Rutgers. Keep in mind Purdue beat Rutgers at Rutgers earlier in the season. Of course we saw last night that beating a team in the past doesn’t equal beating a team in the future. All three of Purdue’s road games are possible losses. Though I’m not particularly impressed with Michigan State, and though Painter has consistently beaten Michigan State in recent years, it’s never an easy place to win.
Michigan State (10-3) – 7 remaining – 3 home – 4 away
Michigan State is trending close to fraud territory in my opinion. They bulked up on easy cupcakes to start their conference season, beginning 9-0 before going 1-3 over their last four. The back end of the conference schedule for Michigan State looks extremely tough and could include a number of losses.
@ Illinois
Purdue
@ Michigan
@ Maryland
Wisconsin
@ Iowa
Michigan
Starting this final push with a game at Illinois could see Michigan State lose their fourth game in five attempts. That could be demoralizing. Playing Michigan twice could easily be a sweep from the Wolverines but for Purdue’s sake perhaps a season split would be the best option. We will have to see. They are lucky to get Purdue and Wisconsin at home without return trips on the road. They also face a struggling Iowa team on the road. In that sense they are lucky. That’s three games that could easily be much worse. I’m beginning to think that overall Michigan State has the easiest conference schedule, but even with that six of their seven games to finish the season look difficult. Nothing is easy in this final stretch.
Wisconsin (9-4) – 7 remaining – 4 home – 3 away
Wisconsin is maybe the surprise member of this group of teams that are at the tope of the Big Ten standings. Though they currently sit in 4th place they’ve been playing great basketball. I think if they win the conference it would be a surprise, but it’s a credit to them that they’ve had such a good season.
@ Purdue
Illinois
Oregon
Washington
@ Michigan State
@ Minnesota
Penn State
They might have the easiest remaining schedule of the contenders. Games against Washington, at Minnesota, and home against Penn State should be easy victories for the Badgers. That would put them at 12-4 with just four games that I deem as mostly tossups. Oregon has not lived up to expectations so you might even consider that a lean Wisconsin game. That moves them to 13 wins with tough games against Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State remaining. Losing two might put them out of the running.
UCLA (9-5) – 6 remaining – 3 home – 3 away
The new kid on the block was expected to challenge for the Big Ten title this season much like their former Pac-12 compatriot Oregon did during football season. Despite some complaining from their head coach, well okay a lot of complaining from their head coach, they’ve acclimated well to their new conference but haven’t dominated like they’d hoped.
@ IU
Minnesota
Ohio State
@ Purdue
@ Northwestern
USC
Much like Wisconsin, UCLA has three games that should easily be wins. Home games against Minnesota and USC are layups for UCLA and Northwestern coming into town after losing roughly half their players should be an easy victory. IU, Ohio State, and Purdue could all be losses for the Bruins. Going into IU and Purdue is never easy. With five losses already, the margin of error for UCLA is significantly reduced. If they lose two games their chances are over. Even one game might do it actually.
There have been just five seasons since the Big Ten moved to a 20 game conference schedule where all 20 games were played (Covid year of course). During that time, the WORST record for a champion has been 14-6. I expect that to be the absolute floor for a champion again this year. That means that UCLA could have just one loss, Wisconsin two, Purdue and Michigan State three, and Michigan four. Of course, it could be a season where the winner only has four losses (this seems the most likely scenario to me). If that’s the case it would seem Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan State are the only teams likely to win it all.
Back to the point or this article though, based on the schedules, who has the easiest road to the Big Ten title? I’m actually going with Wisconsin. They might have the easiest road, but they are starting from a deficit with four losses in conference already. They would have to finish the season perfectly, but their schedule is most suited for that. Make no mistake, none of the contenders have an easy road, but Wisconsin’s seems slightly easier. What do you think? Who has the clearest path to a Big Ten title?