A win does no one any good at this point.
The Indianapolis Colts had a chance to make the playoffs last week. It was an outside chance that needed other dominoes to fall into place, but it was a chance nevertheless. Just a few short days later, the Colts actually sit with the 12th overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. It seems hard to imagine that you could be fighting for a playoff spot and find yourself that close to the top ten draft picks, but with an expanded playoff field, more and more teams find themselves fighting later in the season. That is exactly what the NFL wanted, and it worked. Now that the illusion of a playoff run is out of the minds of Colts fans, it would be best to see them lose Sunday against the Jaguars to better position themselves going forward.
There are scenarios that are going to factor into this that are beyond me at the moment, but currently, the Colts have the same record as the Cowboys and Cardinals. By virtue of tie breaking scenarios, they sit in a more favorable spot to select in next year’s draft. There is a possibility they could fall to 17th if teams like the Falcons, Bengals, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Cardinals lose while the Colts win. It would be unlikely they would drop that far based on all the tie-breakers, but the Colts could find themselves much closer to pick 17 than 12. A loss against the Jaguars would not only help them hold on to that spot, but it could also bump them up to 11. (Once again, big disclaimer as I have not worked through all of these scenarios to see exactly what they would do.)
What makes this so difficult is that the Jaguars are bad. They are sitting at the 5th overall pick and won’t be expected to win against the Colts on the road. Neither team is going to roll over just for a draft pick as the players are too proud and disconnected from that side of the overall franchise to not give it their best shot. We also saw that no matter how bad a team is, like the Giants, any team can beat another in the NFL.
Both franchises have quite a bit on the line going into Sunday. There are players and coaches who are fighting for their NFL careers, however, and don’t care if their team gets a better draft pick next year. To expect the Colts to take this game off is unrealistic. The game plan will be to win. While that might provide fans with some short term satisfaction, it will be costly in the long run. Regardless, expect the Colts to beat the Jaguars and move back in the draft.