Colts’ Week 17 QB Analysis: Don’t blame Flacco

Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

Let me properly set the stage. The New York Giants’ passing defense is not good. Coming into week 17, they ranked 30th in defensive EPA per dropback and 29th in opponent Pass Success Rate. Anything short of dominating them through the air would have been a disappointment. Joe Flacco did not disappoint.

HOW WELL?

Three turnovers is obviously not good, but since two of them came after the game was basically over, they didn’t really impact the outcome that much. They did, however, impact EPA a lot. Even so, Flacco ended with a +0.21 EPA/d, which is significantly above the 2024 NFL average (+0.09).

What really impressed me was his consistency, measured by his 57.5% Pass Success Rate, which ranks in the 88th percentile this year. This consistency is what has been missing with Richardson as his season PSR of 36.7% ranks 31st of starting QBs. While it isn’t flashy, simply completing passes for first downs is the core of a strong passing offense.

Looking across the season, this game was the most robust in the 4 QB measures that are highly correlated with wins.

HOW FAR?

Flacco had a good mix of depths on his throws and maintained a high completion rate. This led to good yardage efficiency, which led to a lot of first downs.

His average depth of targets was actually longer than AR’s in the previous 2 weeks, as was his average depth of completions.

TO WHO?

He focused mainly on Pierce and Pittman with Downs having a “down” day. I don’t care if you hate puns, I wrote what I wrote.

This was not a heavy YAC day on a per catch basis.

Look at that, wide receivers with longer than average depth and higher than average value.

HOW ACCURATE?

Flacco’s accuracy compared to Richardson’s previous 4 weeks is night and day. Even under pressure, Flacco was simply making his throws.

HOW FAST?

There have been only 6 games, where the Colts’ QB got rid of the ball quicker than the NFL average. Flacco was the QB in 5 of them.

TO WHERE?

He found success all over the field, but the attempts within 10 yards is where he excelled.

DASHBOARD

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

• The Colts ran a balanced offense with an adequate run game (14th edp, 18th arsr)
• Flacco took a lot of snaps from shotgun, but not as many as with AR under center (11th sg%).
• The Giants gave Flacco a lot of man looks (18th oz%).
• He faced a lot of pressure even though he got rid of the ball fairly quickly, but that did not stop him from throwing the ball deep (10th pr%, 17th ttt, 4th adot).
• A couple of long completions boosted his avg completion depth and the receivers provided decent YAC (6th ay/c, 12th yacoe). Combine that with an above average completion rate and you get the 8th best yards per attempt of the week.
• Flacco doesn’t abandon a lot of pass attempts and this week was no exception and that kept his overall yardage efficiency high (23rd aa%, 8th ny/d).
• His main strength was delivering consistent successful plays (9th PSR), which resulted in a lot of first downs (8th 1st%) and kept drives moving into consistent scoring position.
• His TD rate was OK, but the turnovers were a big drag on his overall EPA efficiency (18th td%, 2nd to%, 17th EPA/d).

You need to beat up on bad defenses and Flacco did that. He certainly wasn’t perfect and you could argue that if not for the turnovers, maybe we win this game . . . maybe. But the overall point is that he put the Colts in a position to win and that is what you need a QB to do.