ESPN’s assessment of the current state of the Colts is actually slightly more optimistic than initially expected.
According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler (subscription), the Indianapolis Colts are ‘stuck in the middle . . . but a move or two away’ among potential NFL tiers headed into the 2025 offseason:
STUCK IN THE MIDDLE … BUT A MOVE OR TWO AWAY
Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Average age of roster: 26.6
Salary cap space: $27.3 million
Total 2025 draft picks (projected): 7
What’s next: Time to change. No team embodies the NFL middle quite like the Colts, whose 8-9 record last season was quasi-impressive given the drama around quarterback Anthony Richardson and the defense’s late-season collapse. GM Chris Ballard has embraced the need for change, something that others in the building have echoed privately. Everyone in Indy is looking inwardly for solutions after a weird campaign. It is going to have to spend more than it has in the past, starting with a quality quarterback to push Richardson. Decisions loom along the offensive line, with guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly due paydays in free agency. The team can save cap space by releasing Braden Smith ($16.8 million), Samson Ebukam ($8 million), Raekwon Davis ($6.5 million) and Tyquan Lewis ($4.8 million).
The Colts find themselves in this middling, but somewhat hopeful tier with fellow NFL teams such as the Atlanta Falcons (9-8), Dallas Cowboys (7-10), and San Francisco 49ers (6-11)—which honestly, having both the Cowboys and 49ers in the same tier is somewhat comforting (who aren’t far removed from being bona fide Super Bowl contenders).
It’s hard to disagree with the assessment right now too.
The Colts have recently been a very average NFL team as of late, good enough to beat the bottom feeders for the most part (and largely stay out of having a Top 10 draft pick), but not great enough to consistently beat the league’s better to elite competition.
Right now, it’s a critical offseason—and even arguably a make-or-break one for its key decision-makers such as general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen, as well as their franchise quarterback hopeful Anthony Richardson’s future.
While they may be a ‘move or two away’ from being an AFC wild card team again (which the franchise hasn’t made the playoffs since 2020 and would be no small feat), they look realistically closer to a Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow away from being a perennial AFC juggernaut again.