Has the Colts’ Alec Pierce Broken Out?

The Colts third year Wide Receiver has had his share of ups and downs as a pro, but could he finally be breaking out now?

Alec Pierce has been the Colts third option in the passing game for his entire career thus far, first behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell in 2022, then behind Pittman and a rookie Josh Downs in 2023. With Downs out to start this season, Pierce has had an opportunity to be at least the 2nd option in the passing game for the first time in a while. The former Bearcat stayed on the boundary, but his role has gotten increased importance with Anthony Richardson back under center and with Downs out.

Thus far in the 2024 season, Pierce is both the 2nd leading WR in target share for the Colts and their leader in Average Depth of Target as their top vertical threat. Richardson has lead the entire NFL in ADOT, reflecting his increased reliance on Piece. Pierce has been his most reliable receiving threat thus far, with a team best:

• 187 Receiving Yards
• 80% Catch Rate
• 0% Drop Rate
• 50% Contested Target Rate
• 16.4% Catch Rate Over Expected (min. 3 Targets)
• +8.9 Receiving Expected Points Added

He is even 7th in the NFL in Yards per Route Run and Receiving Grade amongst 84 qualified WRs.

Safe to say his impact has been tremendous so far in 2024. While his work to be more fluid of a route runner has certainly paid off (jumping from 2.0-2.2 Average Separation in 2022-2023 to 3.1 so far in 2024), the biggest factor has been the return of Richardson at Quarterback. Richardson is much more willing to air out a deep throw than previous Colts QBs from 2022-2023.

• 2022: Matt Ryan | 4.3% of throws 20+ yards | Lowest % among 2022 qualifying QBs
• 2022: Sam Ehlinger | 12.9% of throws 20+ yards
• 2022: Nick Foles | 11.9% of throws 20+ yards | 28.4 Grade, Ranked 58th/60 QBs (min. 5 attempts)
• 2023: Gardner Minshew | 10.4% of throws 20+ yards | 26th Highest %/40 qualifying QBs
• 2023: Anthony Richardson | 9.5% of throws 20+ yards | 88.8 Grade, Ranked 15th/52 QBs (min. 8 attempts)
• 2024: Anthony Richardson | 18.9% of throws 20+ yards | 2nd Highest % among 2024 qualifying QBs

For a Wide Receiver whose game is predicated on deep vertical routes, having 2024 Richardson is a breath of fresh air to use his skill set properly. Richardson has by far the greatest arm talent, ball velocity, and willingness to air it out deep of any QB Pierce has worked with in his professional career.

The question remains: Can Pierce sustain this breakout going forward?

With Josh Downs returning in Week 3, Pierce might not be the WR2 in targets and go back to WR3 with Downs in a potentially higher volume slot role. He will still at times be spelled by rookie Adonai Mitchell, who has struggled to gain chemistry with Anthony Richardson and form consistency yet in his young pro career.

But it’s clear that Pierce has become a lot more of a reliable threat with Richardson’s arm, so when called upon, his deep ball skills will be highly impactful. The Colts sadly haven’t been able to sustain drives with regularity in the last 2 games, with the lowest offensive plays per game in the NFL. If the Colts are able to sustain drives for longer with Josh Downs returning, then this should raise the overall volume for the entire offense. Downs himself is more likely to eat into the target share of Adonai Mitchell (who is less likely to be in 3 WR sets as the slot with Downs back) and Michael Pittman Jr., who’s 32% target share is likely unsustainable and generally is a short to intermediate depth target. Thus Pierce’s role as a boundary vertical threat with a more sustainable 5 targets a game so far is more secure.

While I do think his efficiency won’t continue its torrid pace, Pierce’s deep threat and increasing viability in intermediate depths bodes well for him to make a big impact when targeted. His current target pace for the season is 85, a new career high, but even if he has his target amount in between his prior career numbers of 65 and 78, he could still have a career year with the Colts based on how more efficient his deep targets are.