To keep the gang together, do the Colts have to make the playoffs?
The Indianapolis Colts winning the Super Bowl would be the best case scenario for 2025 and the easiest way to keep Chris Ballard, Anthony Richardson, and Shane Steichen together going forward. On the other hand, the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft would be the ultimate failure and mean the majority of them, if not all, wouldn’t make it through the season. Those are the extremes, but like most seasons, there is a middle ground. There is a gray area in which things weren’t an ultimate success or disaster. Where is the line in which “good enough” gets the job done and keeps those core three men together in 2026?
Jim Irsay loves to talk about standards, but what those standards are for the Colts anymore, I do not know. With Peyton Manning, the goal was always the number one seed. Winning the division was a stepping stone; a checkpoint along the way. Nowadays, winning the division seems like a herculean task. People buying AFC South Division Champion gear always seemed silly to me during the Manning years, but now, I would see more of a reason to purchase something along those lines. That is unfortunately the sad reality the Colts find themselves in these days.
With that said, what is the minimum that keeps Ballard gainfully employed with the horseshoe and keeps the Colts from seeking a new franchise quarterback. Honestly, I do not know, but I feel a playoff spot should be the minimum. If I had to lay money down, I think Irsay would accept being in the hunt in the closing week of the season, make or miss. Making the playoff as a Wild Card seems like the floor. That would get the Colts back into the postseason and finally show this team taking steps in the right direction. Ideally, Richardson would lead the charge and show he has what it takes to lead the franchise. That could be enough to save this team from a total rebuild.
If I was the owner, however, that wouldn’t cut it. Not as the owner of the Indianapolis Colts, at least. This team would need to win the AFC South. The Titans and Jaguars are picking at the top of the draft, so there is really only one competitor. If the Colts can’t beat the Texans for the division, then changes would be needed. Are the Texans good? Yes. Are they world beaters? Absolutely not. This isn’t a new GM and team that has been assembled. This will be year three of this core and asking them to win is not unreasonable. This is the NFL where winning is everything. Ballard has had plenty of time to create a winner. Win the division or time is up.
What Irsay will ultimately do is anyone’s guess. The fact the Chris Ballard is still around with his track record is remarkable to me. As one of 32 GMs in the world in the NFL, it is a coveted spot and results matter. We haven’t seen those results to date, and all of the excuses have gone out the window. Make the playoffs in any capacity and this group is probably safe. Win the division and we will be singing a different tune next year. Fail to reach that floor, and all three of them might be shown the door.