INDIANAPOLIS – Consider it the butterfly effect, NFL style.
Nothing happens in a vacuum. One move, especially major personnel decisions, impact things to come.
We remind you of our priorities for the Indianapolis Colts as they headed into an offseason that simply had to produce an upgraded roster.
- Quarterback.
- Cornerback.
- Tight end.
- Safety.
- Running back.
Apparently general manager Chris Ballard took our advice to heart. More likely, the areas that concerned us also were obvious to him. Had to be.
No sooner had the free-agent negotiating period opened March 10 than Ballard lured safety Cam Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward to Indy with the two biggest free-agent contracts in his nine years as GM.
So, check and check.
Then, he brought in Daniel Jones as legitimate competition for Anthony Richardson.
Check.
Next, Ballard signed Khalil Herbert to be, at least for now, Jonathan Taylor’s experienced backup.
Again, check.
That leaves us with . . . tight end.
And that brings us to the April 24-26 draft, which offers intriguing prospects at the Colts’ most deficient position, most notably Penn State’s Tyler Warren and Michigan’s Colston Loveland.
The overriding point is Ballard’s heavy investments in free agency – Bynum, Ward and Jones share roughly $80 million in guarantees – has given the Colts flexibility in the draft.
They still could take a safety (Georgia’s Malaki Starks or South Carolina’s Nick Emmanwori).
There’s always room for a top-tier corner (Texas’ Jahdae Barron or Michigan’s Will Johnson).
No one should be surprised if Ballard decides one of the offensive tackle prospects is too tempting to pass up considering right tackle Braden Smith is in the final year of his revised contract (LSU’s Will Campbell or Missouri’s Armand Membou; although both might be better NFL guards).
We wouldn’t be opposed to adding an explosive running back or developmental quarterback on the third day.
But the tight end room is too deficient to ignore, and we’re talking about adding a difference-maker. Free agency wasn’t the proper avenue. The draft is.
What’s going to be interesting as the draft nears is whether Ballard has determined it’s imperative to add Warren after missing out on Brock Bowers last year – Bowers went to the Raiders at No. 13 overall, two spots ahead of Indy, which selected edge rusher Laiatu Latu – or Colston is an acceptable fallback option.
If Warren is the target, Ballard might have to move up from No. 14 to get him. Several mock drafts project Warren to the Colts. The majority that don’t have him being off the board when Indy is on the clock.
We’re roughly five weeks out from the draft, and mock drafts are heating up and making post-free agency adjustments.
Here’s a look.
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com (March 18)
The pick: TE Tyler Warren, Penn State.
The reason: Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones starting for the Colts next season, the team needs to help its quarterback with some easy completions. Warren can provide them, and he’ll also be an asset in the run game for Jonathan Taylor.
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN (March 17)
The pick: TE Colston Loveland, Michigan.
The reason: I liked the Colts’ signings of Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum, so I’m less worried about the secondary than I was a few weeks ago. But I’m still very concerned about Indy’s pass-catching options. This is a make-or-break season for quarterback Anthony Richardson – especially now that Daniel Jones is in the fold as competition – and the wide receiver and tight end rooms are light.
The Colts could take a wideout such as Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka or Texas’ Matthew Golden. But Loveland is ranked higher on my board than all three and could immediately become Indy’s No. 1 tight end. I see him hauling in some Richardson deep balls down the seam.
Notable: Kiper projected Warren to the New York Jets at No. 7.
Anthony Pasciolla, Pro Football Network (March 18)
The pick: TE Colston Loveland, Michigan.
The reason: The Indianapolis Colts miss out on the consensus No. 1 TE for a second consecutive season with Bowers and Warren being selected prior to their pick. Instead of opting for the best player available, the Colts’ front office could become tired of waiting and take the next-best player at the position. Colston Loveland continued his success last season, but the lack of productive quarterback play and the run-oriented offense hurt his level of production.
Notable: Warren went to the Jets No. 10, after a projected trade with Chicago.
Chris Trapasso, CBS Sports (March 19)
The pick: TE Tyler Warren.
The reason: The Colts add a physical specimen at tight end to add more diversity to the offense.
Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis (March 17)
The pick: OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas.
The reason: Center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries are gone with no replacements on the way yet. Right tackle Braden Smith is also entering the final year of his contract. Indy could potentially add a versatile lineman such as Missouri’s Armand Membou or Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. to play guard in the short term while also providing long-term insurance behind Smith if he’s not retained after 2025.
Joel Klatt, FOX Sports (March 18)
The pick: TE Tyler Warren, Penn State.
The reason: I’m not sure if Warren’s going to slide this far, but if he does, this would be a great fit. The Colts are still trying to figure out what’s going on at quarterback. Warren can help either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson, who has proven to be a big-time target and versatile. He was Penn State’s best offensive weapon last season.
Mike Renner, CBS Sports (March 17)
The pick: TE Tyler Warren, Penn State.
The reason: While Anthony Richardson isn’t hurting for weapons, Tyler Warren’s versatility makes him an easy choice to join the offense. He will be a value add as a blocker in the run game and has shown to be a weapon on gadget-type plays in Penn State’s offense.
Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports (March 17)
The pick: TE Tyler Warren, Penn State.
The reason: Tyler Warren accounted for 49% of Penn State’s offense as a receiver, passer and runner. No player has done more for his draft stock than Warren, who was a late Day 2/Day 3 pick over the summer and could end up going higher than the middle of the first round.
Nate Tice, Yahoo Sports (March 18)
The pick: G Tyler Booker, Alabama.
The reason: Cornerback is another position that Indianapolis could go with here, along with tight end, but Will Fries is a free agent at right guard. And the Colts could build one of the league’s better lines, with one of the strongest guard pairings, by adding Booker to their offense.
Notable: Warren slid to the Seattle Seahawks at No. 18.
Kyle Crabbs, 33rd Team (March 17)
The pick: TE Colston Loveland, Michigan.
The reason: The Colts get left out of the Tyler Warren sweepstakes in this scenario but still come away with a talented flex receiver who can create some of the same mismatch problems (or more, if you compare the two in space). With a well-established offensive line that may need a guard to take over for Will Fries, this team has the infrastructure to win the point of attack well enough and embrace the receiving profile of this tight end.
Notable: Warren went to the Jets at No. 7.
John Kosko, Pro Football Focus (March 17)
The pick: CB Jahdae Barron, Texas.
The reason: The Colts have lacked consistency in their secondary the past couple of seasons, so they select the best cornerback available. Barron is fast and fluid and would fit well into defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s zone scheme. Barron can play any position in the secondary if needed, but his instincts would be best at outside cornerback.
Notable: Warren went to Dallas at No. 12.
Walter Football (March 17)
The pick: G Tyler Booker, Alabama.
The reason: The Colts lost Will Fries to Minnesota, giving them a hole at one of their guard spots. I bet they love the idea of having one of the top guard tandems in the NFL. Tyler Booker isn’t an elite athlete, but he has incredible length.
Follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.