Even though the Indianapolis Colts are on the outside looking in, their hopes of making the playoffs are still alive. Through Week 16, they sit two games behind the Denver Broncos for the final wild-card spot. The Broncos own the tie-breaker over the Colts, so with only two games left to play, the Colts will need some wild things to happen to get in. According to NFL.com, the Colts have a 13% chance to make the playoffs after their Week 16 win. This is an incredibly low probability, but the plausibility still remains. Unfortunately, the hope of making the playoffs does not rest solely on the Colts. They will need considerable help to achieve this improbable feat.
There are two possible scenarios in which the Colts can make the playoffs, and one is more probable than the other.
How the Colts Playoff Hopes Can Become a Reality
Scenario #1: Through the Chargers
The most talked about scenario surrounding the playoff hunt is the Los Angeles Chargers losing out while the Colts win out. If this were to happen, the Colts would get into that last playoff spot. The issue with this scenario is the probability of this happening is extremely low. The Chargers would have to lose their last two remaining games, and they play the New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders. These teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and their combined record is 6-24. Even though Justin Herbert has been banged up the last few weeks, the Chargers are still heavily favored in both contests. Therefore, this scenario, while plausible, is still improbable.
That being said, though, on any given Sunday, any team is vulnerable. Both the Patriots and Raiders still have a lot to play for. The Patriots are developing and growing their hopeful franchise quarterback, Drake Maye. For the Raiders, Antonio Pierce is striving to end his first season as a head coach on a high note in hopes that he won’t get fired after one year. Nonetheless, they will still face the 9-6 Chargers, who have much to prove to the league. Justin Herbert is the seventh highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, yet through four seasons, he has only made the playoffs once. Therefore, Herbert and the Chargers also have much to play for, but their stakes are higher. They have a shot to make the playoffs and win a Super Bowl. They also have a chance to prove any doubters about Herbert wrong.
Getting into the playoffs by way of the Chargers will be a tall order for the Colts.
Scenario #2: Through the Bengals and Broncos
The more probable scenario for the Colts making the playoffs is by way of the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos. The Bengals are also in the hunt for the playoffs and must win their two remaining games to keep their hopes alive. For the Colts, the Bengals winning out is just what they need. However, they also need the Broncos to lose out. If both happen, the Colts are in the playoffs.
This scenario is still highly improbable but is more probable than the first scenario. The reason is that the Bengals are the type of team that can truly beat anyone, even with their struggles this season. Their remaining games are against the Denver Broncos and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both of these are winnable games but also very loseable games.
The Broncos remaining games are against the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs. Both games will be tough for the Broncos, who have been vulnerable on defense and inconsistent on offense. The one wrinkle that could get thrown into this is if the Chiefs clinch the number one seed before Week 18 and subsequently sit their starters. If that were to happen, it would be unlikely for the Broncos to lose that final game.
Bottom Line
Regardless of how the Chargers, Bengals, or Broncos do in these remaining games, the Colts must win out to have a shot. If the Colts slip up in one of these final games, their season is done. Similar to the Chargers, the Colts have an easy remaining schedule against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars. Both are very winnable games against teams with a combined record of 5-25. However, winning alone will not cut it for the Colts. They will need a meltdown from the Chargers, or a meltdown by the Broncos coupled with a surge from the Bengals.
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