INDIANAPOLIS – Chris Ballard was adamant in the aftermath of the Indianapolis Colts failing to make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season.
We’re not close.
And.
We are not good enough.
Friday is one week until the April 24-26 NFL Draft, and let’s give the Colts some credit. They’re better than they were four months ago.
But not as good as they need to be in September.
They’ve added accomplished starters at cornerback (Charvarius Ward) and safety (Cam Bynum) and brought in veteran depth on the defensive line (Neville Gallimore) and at running back (Khalil Herbert).
However, the team’s required improvement hinges on whether open competition between quarterbacks Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones produces the necessary upgrade at the most influential position.
As we’ve mentioned, the personnel decisions to this point have provided flexibility in the draft.
Yet there’s still work to do.
That in mind, here’s the team’s top five areas of need. Remember, the Colts hold seven draft picks, including No. 14 overall.
TIGHT END
The situation: We have no problem re-signing Mo Alie-Cox for an eighth season. He’s the best blocker in the tight ends’ room and provides an occasional boost in the pass game. But this remains the most deficient group on the roster. It’s still hard to fathom an entire tight ends room combining for 39 catches, 467 yards and two touchdowns last season. The last individual tight end to post at least 40 catches and 400 yards was Jack Doyle in 2019 (43, 448).
What to do?: Consider this one of those fortunate occasions when a team’s glaring need coincides with a draft deep in that area. The Colts missed out on Brock Bowers by two spots last year – they’re probably still cussing out the Raiders – but can add the game-changer in round 1 Ballard has openly discussed. That would be either Penn State’s Tyler Warren or Michigan’s Colston Loveland.
Most draft analysts rank Warren and Loveland 1-2 at the position, followed by LSU’s Mason Taylor (son of Hall of Famer Jason Taylor), Miami’s Elijah Arroyo, Oregon’s Oronde Gadsden Jr. and Texas’ Gunnar Helm. It’s anyone’s guess whether Ballard and his staff share a similar belief in Warren, or they prefer Loveland, and don’t trust an NFL “insider’’ who insists he knows the scoop.
The bottom line: seize the opportunity to fill a massive hole on offense.
EDGE RUSHER
The situation: It wasn’t a surprise when Dayo Odeyingbo took his vast potential to Chicago, especially when it was facilitated by a three-year contract with $32 million guaranteed. But who steps up and helps fill the void? Hopefully, 2024 first-round pick Laiatu Latu takes the necessary jump in year 2. Ballard is encouraged by the return of Samson Ebukam from a torn Achilles that sidelined him for the entirety of ’24, but it’s risky to project production from someone rehabbing that type of injury.
Kwity Paye has been solid since being taken in round 1 of 2021 – 26.5 sacks, including at least 8 in each of the past two seasons, along with 41 QB hits and 31 tackles for loss. But he’ll be a free agent at the end of the season.
What to do?: Use a first-round pick on an edge rusher for the third time in five years? Ballard could sell us on that, but only if he had a convincing Plan B at tight end. If the Colts go that route, they’ll have several viable options: Jalon Walker and Mykel Williams of Georgia, Shermar Stewart of Texas A&M, James Pearce Jr. of Tennessee, Marshall’s Mike Green and Boston College’s Donovan Ezeiruaku.
A strategy we would endorse is using round 1 on a tight end and looking for an edge rusher – or other pressing need – in rounds 2-3.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has four players (Penn State’s Abdul Carter, Walker, Stewart, Green) with first-round grades, two (Williams and Ezeiruaku) with first/second-round grades and six more with second-round grades. The latter group includes Pearce, Ohio State’s JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, Arkansas’ Landon Jackson, Oregon’s Jordan Burch and Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton.
For those keeping track, the Colts brought in Pearce and Stewart for top-30 visits.
LINEBACKER
The situation: E.J. Speed’s departure was expected – he rode free agency to AFC South rival Houston – but the Colts were intent on upgrading the weakside spot regardless. He piled up 244 tackles and 24 tackles for loss the past two seasons, but was a liability in coverage. Speed also suffered 45 missed tackles in 2023-24, according to Pro Football Focus.
Internally, 2024 fifth-round pick Jaylon Carlies should get an opportunity to replace Speed as Zaire Franklin’s wingman. He had 36 tackles and 1 sack in 10 appearances and six starts as a rookie. His background as a safety at Missouri bodes well for his potential as a cover ‘backer.
What to do?: Ballard could deviate from his draft profile and take a linebacker in round 1 for the first time. This has been his most productive position during the draft – Shaq Leonard, Franklin, Speed, Bobby Okereke, Anthony Walker – but he’s never invested round 1 capital. In fact, the last time the Colts drafted a linebacker in round 1 was Rob Morris in 2000; we consider Bjoern Werner (2013) a defensive end.
While a third- or fourth-round pick seems more appropriate to address the position, early options include Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell, Carson Schwesinger of UCLA and Smael Mondon Jr. of Georgia.
OFFENSIVE LINE
The situation: Ryan Kelly, gone. Will Fries, gone. Braden Smith’s return is encouraging on so many levels – first and foremost for Braden and his family – but the free-agent defections will necessitate significant changes. Tanor Bortolini succeeds Kelly while Matt Goncalves replaces Fries. Ballard never will ignore the o-line. He’s added 10 in his eight drafts, including left guard Quenton Nelson (round 1 in 2018), Smith (round 2 in ’18), left tackle Bernhard Raimann (round 3, ’22) and Bortolini (round 4) and Goncalves (round 3) last year. There’s experienced depth with Danny Pinter, Josh Sills and Blake Freeland, but adding a solid prospect isn’t a bad idea.
What to do?: At some point, Ballard once again will scratch the itch. Some mock drafts have him grabbing a lineman in round 1 – Missouri’s Armand Membou, Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. and Alabama’s Tyler Booker have been mocked to Indy – but we’d prefer sticking with the tight end priority on Thursday and looking for o-line talent in round 2 or round 3. The Athletic’s Brugler and ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. both project the Colts latching onto Arizona tackle/guard Jonah Savaiinaea in round 2.
One of the Colts’ top-30 visits was with Ohio State tackle Josh Simmons, who is on the mend from a torn left patellar tendon. He’s still considered a likely first-round pick.
SAFETY
The situation: At some point, probably on Day 3, Ballard is likely to add a prospect from a deep running back class and a developmental quarterback. But both areas fall in line behind the need to add a safety. We have no issue with Bynum and Cross, who should form a potent tandem. But the only position at more need of reliable depth is tight end.
Just look at the current pecking order with former mainstay Julian Blackmon still unsigned: Rodney Thomas II, Daniel Scott and Marcel Dabo. Thomas started 25 games his first two seasons, but fell out of favor and the 2022 seventh-round pick was on the field for just 98 snaps last season. Scott, a 2023 fifth-round pick, has missed his first two seasons with quad and Achilles injuries. Dabo has spent three seasons on the practice squad.
What to do?: Again, invest a Day 3 pick on a developmental safety. Then, sign a veteran.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.