INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium.
*Kickoff: 1 p.m.
*Broadcast: CBS4.
*Spread: Colts by 3 1/2.
*History lesson, Part I: The Colts lead the overall series 38-22 and have won the last two after a five-game losing streak in the series. They won the first meeting in week 6 in Nashville behind backup quarterback Joe Flacco. Anthony Richardson missed the first of two games with a hip injury. Flacco rallied the Colts from a 17-10 third-quarter deficit and secured the 20-17 win with a 10-yard TD pass to Michael Pittman Jr. with 7:27 remaining.
*History lesson, Part II: If you’re a fan of individual achievements in an otherwise disappointing season, we’ve got a couple for you. Jonathan Taylor needs 89 yards for his third 1,000-yard season. The only Colts with at least three are Edgerrin James (five), Marshall Faulk (four), Eric Dickerson (three) and Lydell Mitchell (three). Also, Richardson needs 13 yards to break Mike Pagel’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback (441 yards in 1983). Richardson has tied Andrew Luck’s record for rushing TDs by a quarterback in a season (five).
*Playoff picture: This won’t take long. Blame the Colts and Jonathan Taylor for fumbling things away last week at Denver.
With three games remaining, Indy has a 12% chance of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2020, according to The Athletic’s simulator. Every option hinges on the Colts taking care of business against the NFL’s easiest closing schedule – home against the 3-11 Titans, at the 2-12 New York Giants, home against 3-11 Jacksonville. Then, either the 9-6 Chargers or 9-5 Ravens must lose out. The Colts would win a tiebreaker scenario with either based on conference record. The Chargers finish at New England (3-11) and at the Raiders (2-12) while the Ravens are home against Pittsburgh (10-4) today, at Houston (9-5) and home against Cleveland (3-11).
Another rabbit hole to the playoffs for the Colts is finishing in a three-way tie at 9-8 with Denver and either Cincinnati or Miami. The conference tiebreaker would favor the Colts.
Yes, the loss to the Broncos is going to leave a mark.
*Regroup or lull?: We’re about to discover the mental toughness of the Colts. They’re on the rebound from the loss at Denver which all but extinguished their playoff hopes. And they were largely to blame. The main objective over the final three games is finishing with a second straight 9-8 record.
A lapse would really be inexcusable. Players and coaches owe it to the organization and fan base to finish strong. The fan base clearly is angry and losing patience with a team that will miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season. That hasn’t happened since a seven-year drought (1988-94).
The next step after anger is apathy, and that’s a dangerous response to any professional team. Owner Jim Irsay can’t be pleased.
*Richardson’s progress: The main objective this season was nurturing the development of Richardson, whose rookie season was limited to four starts by shoulder surgery. If we’re being honest, we don’t know whether the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 draft is the long-term answer, or a gifted individual who’ll simply be a tease. The final three games could – should – answer a lot of questions.
Richardson is completing 47% of his passes, the worst among 34 quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. That would be the worst mark in club history and just the third time a Colts QB with at least 200 attempts have finished below 50%. Jack Trudeau sits at the bottom (48.9% in 1986).
Yes, there are extenuating circumstances. Too many dropped passes. Too much pressure allowed in pass protection. But Richardson must shoulder a ton of the blame. He’s proven to be a serious threat in the run game, but passing continues to be an adventure. He’s missed way too many layups.
The Titans should provide a legitimate test. Their defense ranks No. 2 in fewest total yards allowed (297.4), No. 12 against the run (115.2) and No. 3 against the pass (182.2).
The Titans’ pass rush has been hit-and-miss – just 28 sacks, tied for 6th-fewest in the league – but tackle Jeffery Simmons remains one of the best at his position with. 4 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Linebacker Harold Landry has 8 sacks and 13 tackles for loss, both team highs. Linebacker Arden Key has 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss.
In case you’ve forgotten, it was Landry’s tackle on Richardson that ended Richardson’s rookie season.
*Continue to feature AR/JT tandem: While we’re still waiting for Richardson to develop as a passer, we’ve seen the possibilities with the 6-4, 250-pounder and Taylor as a run-threat tandem. The Colts have piled up 144 and 149 yards the past two games. Taylor has 203 yards and averaged 4.3 yards against the Patriots and Broncos while Richardson has 187 yards and four TDs on 36 games in four games since being benched.
*Replacing Pierce: The loss of wideout Alec Pierce (concussion) is tough. He’s the unquestioned big-play threat in the pass game. His 22.2-yard average on 29 catches leads the league.
That should provide rookie AD Mitchell another opportunity in what has been a disappointing season. The failed double pass against the Broncos was just the latest hiccup. Mitchell has secured just 40.1% of his 49 targets.
Richardson still has been able to generate explosive plays since returning with 11 completions of at least 20 yards. But the longest has been a 39-yarder to Pierce against Detroit. Before being yanked from the starting lineup, Richardson had six completions of 40+ yards.
*Limiting Rudolph: It appears the Titans have had enough of Will Levis’ carelessness. Their 2023 second-round pick (No. 33 overall) was benched in last week’s loss to Cincinnati in favor of Mason Rudolph after four more turnovers. Levis has 17 in 11 starts – 12 interceptions, five fumbles – and had four interceptions returned for touchdowns. In 20 career starts, he’s suffered 26 turnovers.
That means the Colts face Rudolph. The former Steeler hasn’t exactly taken care of the football with five interceptions on 160 pass attempts.
This should be a good opportunity for the Colts’ defensive front to get after the QB. The Titans have given up 46 sacks, tied for 5th-most in the league. DeForest Buckner quietly is having another strong season (6.5 sacks, 12 QB hits, seven tackles for loss despite missing five games).
If you’re into these things, Rudolph is 9-6-1 as a starter and 1-0 against the Colts. In 2019, he led the Steelers to a 26-24 win by completing 26-of-35 passes for 191 yards with one TD and one interception.
The key to containing the Titans’ offense rests with containing running back Tony Pollard (982 yards and five TDs).
*And the winner is: Colts 24, Titans 13. It will surprise us if Indy comes out flat. The last thing the players/coaches want is to be booed out of the building a few days before Christmas.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.