Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
The Colts’ defense had another rough day, allowing over 400 yards and 30 points to the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo’s offense earned a 72.4% Drive Success Rate which is above average, but not by a lot (55th percentile). It was explosive plays (7th most, 6th most yards) that allowed the Bills to get into scoring poosition on 6 of their drives without requiring a lot of first downs.
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TEAM TOTALS
(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).
Team PPG,
Off PPG,
Yds,
P/R%,
DSR,
yds/srs,
Strt Fld,
xOPPD,
yds/ply,
EPA/ply,
0 EPA with 4th qtr rush success adjusted by win probability”>adj TSR,
1st/ply,
Pen 1st/ Yds,
3DC,
3rd ytg,
=20 yards or runs >= 10 yards. Not a great stat by itself but helpful in conjunction with everything else. “>Expl Plys,
TO,
TOP%
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By Points per Drive, the Colts defense ranked 21st, but manage a 16th ranked defensive DSR.
The defense was 15th in conversion rate (1st/ply), but 22nd in yards per play against. Again, that discrepancy is due to explosive plays. Buffalo gained 157 yards off of just 6 plays, so not a lot of first downs were required to move the ball far down the field.
On the year, the Colts drop 1 spot to 13th in PPD and remain steady at 22nd place in DSR. DVOA puts the Colts defense at 20th, which is closer to their DSR rank than their PPD rank and that mirrors my thoughts.
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PASS TOTALS
(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).
0.”>PSR,
Cmp,
Att,
Yds,
TD,
Int,
Sk,
Sk Y,
1st/db,
ny/d,
cmp %,
aDOT,
cpoe,
YBC,
YAC,
= 20 yards”>20+ #/Yd
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Two interceptions and two sacks helped limit the Bills passing and so the Colts defense ends up with the 9th best defensive EPA per dropback. However, they gave up a lot of successful plays too, resulting in an 18th ranked defensive Pass Success Rate.
Those successful plays came off of a lot of completions between 5-10 yards that didn’t earn first downs, so they didn’t boost Josh Allen’s conversion rate a lot, but it set the Bills up to move the chains.
On the year, the passing defense jumps 2 spots to 16th in defensive EPA per dropback, but remain at 19th in defensive Pass Success Rate. The pass defense has slowly been climbing their way up to average.
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RUSH TOTALS
(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).
median EPA for similar situation, weighted by outcome (TD, first down, chunk yardage) and adjusted for 4th quarter game script by win probability. This is a pretty good predictive stat, especially since most rushing stats suck.”>adj RSR,
Yds,
Car,
TD,
1st,
Fum Lost,
0. Helps explain adj RSR”>RSR,
1st/c,
YPC,
= 10 yards”>10+ #/Yd,
3rd,
3DC,
epa/c,
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Defending the run last Sunday was a huge problem. The Colts only gave up 3.9 yards per carry, but many of those carries came on short yardage situations allowing a lot of first downs (7th highest conversion rate).
They also gave up 3 explosive carries and 2 TDs. All of those high value runs gave the Bills the most EPA per carry of any team in week 10 and puts the Colts at 24th of 28 teams in run defense.
This worsens the Colts season long defensive Adj Rush Success Rate to 37.5%, but ironically they climb 1 spot to 10th best rushing defense on the year. Grain of salt time though. There is a logjam of teams right around that 37.5% number. The Colts are 2% away from ranking 8th and also 2% away from ranking 20th. My gut tells me to split the difference and call the real rank 14th. DVOA says 16th, so I’m happy with that.
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CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD
The Colts defense is trying very hard to be average in both phases and I say that as a good thing. They have progressively gotten better after some less than stellar outings.
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They face the New York Jets in week 11, which is good news as the Jets’ offense is only 23rd in Points per Drive. They are, however, 16th in Drive Success Rate, which implies an ability to move the chains not reflected on the scoreboard. They are 9th best at 3rd down conversions, but only 20th in explosive plays.
Aaron Rodgers has pretty much been a D+ with the Jets. He is 20th in EPA per dropback. He’s not pressured (30th), but he’s also not completing passes (28th cmp%, 30th cpoe). He’s not throwing TDs and his 2.1% turnover rate is high for him (but still below league average).
On the ground, the Jets are pretty bad. They have a 25th ranked adj Rush Success Rate (28th DVOA) off of a 28th ranked conversion rate and 21st ranked EPA per carry.
This bodes well for the Colts.