Week 17 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis:

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

In week 17, the Colts offense ran roughshod over the New York Giants, scoring 33 points, which is 12 more than the Giants’ defensive season average. The Colts entered Giants territory on 9 of their 12 drives and found the redzone 6 times.

The New York defense found minimal success forcing 1 punt and 1 turnover on downs, but outside of that, it was Colts turnovers that ended their drives. In other words, the Colts stopped themselves more than the Giants did.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The game had a lot of drives, so the Colts’ 33 points (which was 8th best) dilutes down to a 13th best points per drive. The turnovers ended drives early, which depressed both Drive Success Rate (16th) and EPA per play (15th). However, the offense played better on the whole than those measures would lead you to believe. Indy managed the 9th best yards per play and the 8th best success rate.

On the season, the Colts offense ranks 18th in PPD, but only 25th in DSR. That discrepancy is a result of relying on explosive plays for points, instead of just consistently moving the chains. That is partially why DVOA ranks the Colts offense 23rd.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Flacco’s 17th ranked EPA per play was depressed by the turnovers, but his Pass Success Rate finished the week at 10th best, which highlights his overall consistency. He had no trouble gaining decent chunks of yardage (8th ny/d) and turning that into first downs (11th 1st/d).

On the year, Colts passing (Richardson + Flacco) is 23rd in EPA per dropback and an even lower 27th in PSR. Again that shows that the Colts relied on a few high value plays for their passing value instead of a lot of smaller positive value plays. DVOA ranks Colts passing at 23rd. Without Flacco, all of those ranks would be closer to 30th-ish.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

On the ground, the Colts had the 8th most carries, so the 10th most yards makes sense. But a 20th yards per carry and a 21st conversion rate aren’t as impressive. When I account for down, distance and game script, those efficiency measures imrpove, but end up only 18th best (adj rsr).

On the year, I rank Colts rushing as 15th best, while DVOA says 14th.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

It was a strong offensive game, with competent running and good, consistent passing. There were plenty of mistakes that limited scoring but 33 points should get you a “W” most of the time.

On the year, the Colts numbers places them firmly in the group of poor offenses. My stats place the Ravens, Bills and Lions offenses significantly above all other teams.

The Colts end their season at home hosting the Jaguars and their 31st ranked defense (defensive PPD).

Jacksonville’s pass defense is the worst in the league. They give up the most EPA per dropback to opposing QBs and rank 25th in defensive Pass Success Rate. They also have the 3rd lowest number of sacks this year. This is another game, that if Flacco does not dominate, it will be a disappointment.

The Jags are better against the run, but still not good, ranking 20th in defensive adj RSR. They give up the 7th highest rush conversion rate and the 10th most explosive rushes. Maybe JT can put on a show one more time.