Week 18 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis: End of Year Final Rankings

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

In their final game of the 2024 season, the Colts had no problem getting into scoring position, but turning those opportunities into touchdowns proved difficult. 7 of the Colts’ 12 drives made it past the Jacksonville 40 yard line, but 5 of those stalled, forcing field goal attempts.

This resulted in a lot of yards, but relatively few first downs. So, even though they earned the 6th most yards of any team, their Drive Success Rate only ranked 18th. However, they avoided turnovers and so that depressed efficiency didn’t hurt them as much as it could have.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The Colts ranked 16th in Points per Drive, 15th in yards per play and 16th in conversion rate, which pretty well describes the generic outcomes. However, their 6th ranked success rate points to “what could have been” if they were only able to finish some of those field goal drives.

On the year, the Colts finish 18th in PPD and 25th in DSR. DVOA adjusts for opponent and gives a 19th ranking on the year. There certainly was a lot of room for improvement, but on the other hand a lot of teams did much worse.

PASS TOTALS

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Flacco’s 21st ranked EPA per dropback and 19th ranked pass Success Rate was not impressive. He avoided highly negative plays (turnovers), but he just didn’t have many positive value plays to make a difference.

On the season, Colts’ passing finishes 24th in EPA/d and 27th in PSR. DVOA is a little more favorable at 22nd, but clearly passing was poor and that makes it hard to succeed in the NFL.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The run game, however, was outstanding. Jonathan Taylor was the sole rusher in the game and he racked up 12 first downs, earning the 4th highest conversion rate for the week. Only 1 of those conversions came on 3rd down, showing that he was strong on early down carries.

He also earned a TD and had 3 explosive carries for 40 yards. Adjusting all of that for situation gives the 2nd best rushing performance of the week (adj RSR).

On the year, I have the Colts as the 13th best rushing team while DVOA calls them 14th. Imagine if we could maintain this level of rushing alongside improved passing.

CONCLUSION

The week 18 offense somewhat mirrors the season; below average passing, above average running. The Jags don’t score much and so the Colts offense worked for this game, but it’s no surprise that Indy finished below 0.500 on the year.

The passing game must improve to have any shot at success. Richardson has potential, but who knows if he will be able to reach it. There were things I saw from him this year that I liked (avoiding sacks while not abandoning attempts) and there were things I didn’t like (not completing passes). I’m not a coach, so I guess I’ll just cross my fingers and not worry about it until next season.