INDIANAPOLIS — Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Broadcast: FOX59.
Spread: Lions by 7½.
History lesson, Part I: The Colts lead the overall series 22-19-2 and have won five of the last six. That one blemish was a 39-35 Detroit win on its most recent visit to Indy. It was the 2016 season-opener, and quarterback Andrew Luck’s return after missing the last seven games of ’15 with a lacerated kidney/torn abdominal muscle suffered against Denver. Luck passed for 385 yards and four TDs, including a go-ahead 6-yard TD to Jack Doyle with 37 seconds remaining. But the Lions quickly responded with Matt Prater’s 43-yard field goal with 4 seconds left.
*Playoff picture: The comeback win over the Jets kept the Colts smack dab in the middle of the chase for the AFC’s No. 7 playoff spot. They’re 5-6 and situated on the No. 8 rung, right behind No. 7 Denver (6-5) and just ahead of No. 9 Miami (4-6) and No. 10 Cincinnati (4-7). Regardless the outcome Sunday, circle the Colts’ Dec. 15 trip to Denver on your calendar.
It’s hard to imagine the 9-1 Lions suffering a letdown. They hold the No. 1 NFC seed, but the 8-2 Philadelphia Eagles lurk in the chase for a first-round bye.
Slow ‘em down: This doesn’t require deep evaluation. The Colts absolutely, positively must avoid getting into a track meet with the Lions. Detroit brings to town one of the NFL’s most potent offenses: No. 1 in scoring, No. 3 in total yards and rushing yards, No. 6 in passing. The Lions own a league-best plus-159 point differential — that means they average winning by nearly 17 points per game — and have scored at least 40 points four times and hit 52 twice. They’re responsible for the three biggest blowouts in the league this season, including a 52-6 annihilation of Jacksonville last week when they scored TDs on their first seven possessions.
The Colts’ pass rush has cranked up the pressure lately — at least 2 sacks in five straight games — and the return of defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis should help. The versatile veteran has missed the last seven games following elbow surgery. If Jared Goff is allowed to operate in a quiet pocket, it’s going to be a long afternoon. He’s completing 73% of his passes and has topped 80% five times.
Pressure him, or else.
The Lions have too many legitimate weapons. Wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams share 89 catches, 1,223 yards and 13 TDs. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have rushed for 1,391 yards and 18 TDs and caught 44 passes for 461 yards and 1 TD. And tight end Sam LaPorta has 25 catches, 366 yards and 3 TDs.
It’s pick-your-poison at the highest level. That in mind, allowing the Lions to establish their Gibbs-Montgomery run game would make winning highly unlikely.
Gus Bradley’s defense has kept a slew of games winnable, but hasn’t faced an opponent with this much firepower.
Ball control, and finish: The cornerstone of Shane Steichen’s offense is throw to score, run to win, but this might be one of those occasions when it’s more prudent to lean heavily on the run game from the outset. And that’s with Detroit’s defense ranking No. 5 against the run (94.8).
The Colts’ ability to control the game with quarterback Anthony Richardson and running back Jonathan Taylor would limit possessions for Goff and the Lions, and that’s never a bad thing. Taylor and Richardson combined for 34 attempts in last week’s comeback win over the Jets, and that number feels about right Sunday. Maybe even a few more if the rookie-laden offensive line gets its act together.
An alarming trend as injuries have cut into the offensive line — three rookies will start for a second straight week — has been the run game averaging 93.3 yards per game and 3.7 yards per attempt over the last three weeks.
As much as ball control is critical, that only works if Richardson finishes drives with TDs and not Matt Gay field goals. The Colts were 3-for-4 in the red zone against the Jets, with two powerful Richardson TD runs and Richardson’s 10-yard TD pass to receiver Josh Downs. On the season, Indy is coming away with TDs 55.9% of the time (tied-No. 17) while Detroit’s defense is tied-No. 3 (42.9%).
Richardson encore: This is a bottom-line business, which means the only thing that truly matters is the final score. In this instance, we beg to differ.
It matters whether Richardson can stack another game on top of his career-best 272 passing yards, 66.7% passing and three total TDs versus the Jets. And another. And another. The No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 draft must be the future of the franchise, and the only way that becomes a reality is with week-to-week consistency and growth.
That doesn’t necessarily mean a win over perhaps the best team in the NFL, but it does mean playing at a high enough level to give your team a chance to pull the upset. One of the most impressive aspects of Richardson’s game against the Jets was not putting the football at risk in the passing game (his two fumbles, one lost, is another matter). The Lions will test his decision-making. They have 14 interceptions, tied for second-most in the league. Safety Kerby Joseph has a league-best seven and safety ‘mate Brian Branch four.
And the winner is: Lions 35, Colts 20. We consider this a bridge too far for Indy. We expect the Colts to come out and feed off what promises to be a raucous crowd — fueled in part by Lions fans, of course — but at some point, the Goff-led offense will prove too much to deal with.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter/X at @mchappell51.