INDIANAPOLIS — Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday night meeting with the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
*Kickoff: 8:20 p.m.
*Broadcast: NBC
*Spread: Vikings by 5
*History lesson, Part I: The Colts lead the overall series 18-8-1, and have won six of the last seven. But that most recent meeting was a doozy.
*History lesson, Part II: You remember, Dec. 17, 2022, right? Week 15 in one of the most chaotic seasons for a franchise that’s had its fair share. The Colts had lost three straight after giving Jeff Saturday his first win as interim coach at Las Vegas following the firing of Frank Reich. The precursor to the visit to Minneapolis was a fourth-quarter implosion and 54-19 loss at Dallas.
The Colts seemingly had shaken off the embarrassment of giving up 33 fourth-quarter points to the Cowboys when they settled into a 33-0 halftime lead that stunned the Vikings and their normally raucous crowd. Then, everyone witnessed either the largest comeback in NFL history or the league’s biggest collapse. It just depended on which sideline you roamed.
The Vikings still trailed 36-7 with 2 minutes remaining in the third quarter when kicker Chase McLaughlin converted a 52-yard field goal, his fifth of the game. They proceeded to rattle off four touchdowns and 29 points in roughly 15 minutes, and with the Colts’ ineptness, were able to overcome a Rodney Thomas II interception and failed fourth-and-15. The Vikings forced overtime with quarterback Kirk Cousins’ 64-yard TD pass to running back Dalvin Cook and 2-point PAT to tight end T.J. Hockenson with 2:15 remaining.
Kicker Greg Joseph completed the historic comeback/collapse with a 40-yard field goal with three seconds left in OT.
*Playoff picture: The Colts sit at 4-4 and one-half game behind the 4-3 Los Angeles Chargers for the seventh and final AFC playoff spot. The 5-2 Vikings, who have lost two straight, currently are seeded No. 6 in the NFC.
*It’s Joe’s show: After insisting they were committed to following a long-term plan with quarterback Anthony Richardson and enduring the expected ups and downs, the Colts pulled the plug this week. Coach Shane Steichen, with the support of owner Jim Irsay and general manager Chris Ballard, benched the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 draft and put the team’s immediate future in the hands of the 39-year-old Joe Flacco.
“Joe will be our quarterback going forward,’’ Steichen said Wednesday. “Tough decision, but one I felt was in the best interest of our football team.
“I feel Joe gives us the best chance to win right now.’’
There’s no denying the long-range ramifications of the move, but the overriding issue is Richardson forced it with what has been an on-field regression. He’s completing 44.4% of his passes with a 57.2 rating, both worst in the league. Richardson also has suffered nine turnovers in six games – seven interceptions and two lost fumbles. Make of the one-play tap-out at Houston what you will.
The reality is, Flacco is the guy for the foreseeable future.
He’ll make his 188th career regular-season start and brings a contrasting skillset to the offense. Flacco has a strong arm and will push the football down the field, but his insertion should bring more efficiency. He’s completed 65.7% of his passes with seven TDs and one interception.
What will be missing, obviously, is the run-game threat Richardson provided.
*Don’t make it a 1-man show: If the switch to Flacco is going to produce the desired results, the Colts have to truly rally around their 17-year veteran. He should offer a calming presence but isn’t capable of carrying the team.
The non-AR run game must primarily operate with running back Jonathan Taylor, who’s coming off a 105-yard game in the loss at Houston that was aided by Richardson (45 yards on six carries). He’s cracked the 100-yard level in three of his five starts and is averaging 90.8 yards per game and 4.9 per attempt, and will be going against a Vikings’ defense run defense that ranks No. 3 in yards per game (83.9) and yards per attempt (3.9).
Despite those strong numbers, backs have had success. San Francisco’s Jordan Mason had 100 yards on 20 carries, Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs 116 on 15 and the Rams’ Kyren Williams 97 on 23.
In the pass game, look for Flacco to use quicker drops and more timing throws, which will require receivers Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and AD Mitchell to create immediate separation. Again, Steichen will take shots when the mood hits, but the offense must be better at moving the chains. In the two-plus games Flacco has played, Downs has been targeted 30 times and managed 24 catches, 217 yards and two TDs.
Speaking of the pass game, nothing will come easily. Vikings’ coordinator Brian Flores mixes and disguises a blitz-happy scheme. It’s generated 24 sacks from nine different players — outside ‘backers Pat Jones II, Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard have five each — and 12 interceptions from eight.
The Colts’ pass protection was spotty at Houston — Richardson was sacked a season-high five times and avoided a few others with his strength — and will be without left tackle Bernhard Raimann (concussion). Rookie Matt Goncalves is expected to make his first NFL start. The line already is operating with undrafted rookie Dalton Tucker at right guard.
*Deal with WR1: Every conversation in defensive meetings this week had to begin with dealing with Justin Jefferson. He’s arguably the NFL’s top receiver.
“Boy, I mean, he’s got to rank up there,’’ coordinator Gus Bradley said. “Tremendous ball skills. Really, really good route runner.
“You’ll see him on tape getting doubled, and they’ll still try to get him the ball because they have that much faith in him He can change the outcome of the game very quickly.’’
Since being selected with the 22nd overall pick in 2020, Jefferson has the most receiving yards (6,454), 100-yard games (31) and 20-plus-yard receptions (114). Through seven games, he’s managed 41 catches, 646 yards (15.8/rec.) and five TDs on 60 targets. All are team-highs.
The problem with Jefferson? He isn’t the only problem. There’s widedouts Jordan Addison (16.5-yard average on 14 catches), Jalen Nailor (16.4 on 14) and running back Aaron Jones. The free-agent acquisition not only leads the Vikings with 501 rushing yards and two TDs, but is second with 22 catches, 227 yards and another TD.
Oh, and Hockenson will make his first appearance of the season. One of the league’s most productive tight ends hasn’t played since suffering tears to the ACL and MCL in his right knee in week 16 of last season. Before going down, Hockenson had 95 receptions for 960 yards and five TDs.
Colts’ cornerbacks Kenny Moore II, Jaylon Jones and Samuel Womack II will have their hands full with Jefferson and the rest, as will linebackers Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed with Jones in the run game and Hockenson in the pass game.
*Pressure Darnold: Quarterback Sam Darnold has found a home — at least until first-round pick J.J. McCarthy returns in 2025 — and is in the midst of a Pro Bowl-caliber season. The 3rd overall pick of the Jets in 2018 ranks No. 4 in the league with a 107.2 passer rating 8.5 average/attempt. He has 14 touchdowns against five interceptions.
A weakness in his armor might be his protection. Darnold has been sacked 21 times in seven games, including at least four on three occasions. Every quarterback’s efficiency and effectiveness are impacted by pressure and defenders around him.
The Colts must bother him with pressure from DeForest Buckner, Laiatu Latu, Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo. The Vikings will be without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week against the Rams.
Minnesota addressed Darrisaw’s loss by acquiring veteran Cam Robinson in a trade with Jacksonville. If he isn’t able to get up to speed with little practice, the Vikings reportedly are considering moving Blake Brandel from left guard to left tackle and replacing Brandel with Dalton Risner.
*And the winner is: Vikings 31, Colts 17. Maybe Flacco gives the Colts the best chance to win, but this seems to be a bad matchup. The Vikings offer a defense capable of creating disruption — they’ll test rookies Goncalves and Tucker in protection — and an offense capable of doing damage from several angles.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter/X at @mchappell51.